House that Edgar Built

Villone accepts Arbitration; Another Dodger?

2004-12-20T11:50:00.000-08:00

News this morning is that Ron Villone has accepted the Mariners' arbitration offer. The deadline was December 19th. It's expected that Villone and the Mariners will come to agreement on a deal before it goes before the arbitrator. From the article: "Villone said he and the Mariners 'are not that far apart' on a two-year contract." I would expect Ron to perhaps get something in the neighborhood of 2 years, $3 to $4M.

Villone returning is a good thing. He plays an important role in a pitching staff that has and continues to go through a lot of change. I expect there will be many extended relief and spot start needs like their was last year. Villone fills those needs well that stabilizes the pitching staff. I would have preferred a 1 year deal and less money, but sometimes it's okay for a guy to get paid.

In rumors this morning, the Washington Times is reporting that the Mariners have an offer into Odalis Perez that exceeds a Nationals offer believed to be 3 years, $18M. A serious run at Perez is hard to believe given that Bavasi and Lincoln are now on record as saying that the Mariners are done in free agency barring trades to move salary, etc. While Odalis would be a nice pickup, signing Kevin Millwood to a 1 year, "value rehabbing" deal (assuming he would be interested in such a thing) might be a better fit for the Mariners allowing flexibility in next year's free agent market.

Other interesting news:

Jason Varitek has declined salary arbitration with the Red Sox giving the sides until Jan 8th to come to agreement. Other Sox declining include Derek Lowe and Orlando Cabrera (who will not be coming back) and Pokey Reese and Mike Myers (not sure about them).
Carlos Beltran has declined the Astros offer of salary arbitration which gives Houston until the Jan. 8th deadline to resign him. The Yankees appear to be the front-runner. It's really too bad there aren't more teams that are interested in signing him. I'm a big fan of Beltre and would have liked to the Mariners make a run at him (btw, not that I'm complaining with Beltre!) The Cubs and Dodgers are rumored, but it appears that it's down to Houston and New York. I guess I'd rather see him back with the Astros, but either way it's disappointing.
If you haven't been following the DC baseball ~~saga~~ mess, it's pretty interesting. To summarize: MLB & DC agreed to the move contingent on an agreed stadium financing plan; DC city officials voted to alter the plan to involve more private financing; MLB halts operations suspending marketing & ticket operations; MLB enforces December 31st deadline; a poll of DC residents finds the majority support the private financing.

I happen to agree with ESPN's Jim Caple. He's correct that the new owner should pay for the costs of the stadium. Forcing the community to pay is MLB being selfish. Oh wait Seattle knows all about that. But selecting DC was a bad idea from the start. The DC community doesn't want baseball like the other communities that competed. It would have been a far better solution to put baseball in Northern VA or even Las Vegas.

If you bought a "W" hat, it's going to be a collector's item! In fact they are already selling for about $30 on ebay.

It's Official Now - Beltre to Mariners

2004-12-17T14:58:00.000-08:00

Since yesterday afternoon, it's been Beltre "reportedly" to Mariners. The press release is now on the Mariners MLB.com website.

"Adrian is one of the best young position players in baseball," Bill Bavasi said. "He plays Gold Glove caliber defense and is an offensive force. In addition, he is a perfect fit for our goal of building for 2005 and beyond. For everything he's accomplished, he's only 25 years old. We believe he is just entering his prime and we are very excited to know that his prime will be spent in a Mariners uniform at Safeco Field.

"We are also pleased that, like Richie Sexson, Adrian is a great person as well as a great player. He will be a terrific addition to our community."

and ...

"Adrian is a perfect fit for how I envision the Mariners, next season and into the future," Mariners manager Mike Hargrove said. "This gives us an infield with, basically, three Gold Glovers, pop at both corners and at second base and an exciting young player at shortstop.
"We are a much better team today than we were a couple of days ago. With Beltre, Sexson and Boone in the middle of our order and Ichiro at the top, we now have the ability to run a real legitimate line-up out there every day."

I've been waiting to let this out until the official press release .... Mr. Bavasi .... YOU DA MAN!! ... and Mr. Lincoln ... you too. Way to go! I'm so ecstatic with this news that I can hardly contain myself. I can't wait for the press conference.

Update: The Press Conference will be at 4 pm. Don't miss it. If you're at work, it's being streamed on MLB.com :) Enjoy this Mariner fans!

Beltre Reaction Roundup

2004-12-17T02:37:00.000-08:00

By now, we've all read the analysis and opinion in the local rags. The Seattle PI's John Levesque, John Hickey chime in. As does the Times' Steve Kelley. I thought it would be interesting to look around the net for national reaction. Here's a little of what I found:

Dayn Perry of Fox Sports:

Although they underachieved to a degree last season, I'm not prepared to take them seriously as contenders in 2005. That said, I very much like the addition of Adrian Beltre. I anticipated that Beltre would sign a seven-year deal for something in excess of $80 million. Instead, the M's land him for five years and $64 million. I'm not entirely sure how to forecast Beltre's performance over the next half-decade, but it won't surprise me if he winds up being worth every penny.

Buster Olney of ESPN: The Magazine: Analysis: 4 Baseballs - "Extremely High Impact".

The Mariners' situation this winter was much like the Mets' situation: With their credibility eroded, they felt they had to make a splash to win back the interest of the fans. The signing of Richie Sexson was their Pedro Martinez gamble, giving a four-year, $50 million contract to a medical risk. Now they have followed that up with the signing of one of the best available position players -- the 25-year-old Beltre, who batted .334 with 48 homers and 121 RBI for the Dodgers last year, after fully blossoming for the first time in his career. There is no exchange rate involved in those numbers, either: Beltre put up that MVP-type season in Dodger Stadium, a pitcher's park, just like Seattle's Safeco Field. He had the grit to play through injuries last season, he had earned the respect of teammates, and he could be a terrific player for the Mariners for many years to come. He is expensive -- but in a winter when all teams are paying sticker price, that is the cost of talent ...But going forward, they have made a strong and bold statement; Beltre's a great player and he will be for a long time.

Bill Plaschke of the LA Times:

When asked about the perception that McCourt doesn't have the money to run a team in a major market, DePodesta said, "It's ludicrous. That's an absurd perception."

Here's what ludicrous: The Dodgers had worked out the basics for the Green and Penny salary dump before Beltre signed … and their offer still fell 30% short of the Seattle Mariners' deal.

Here's what's absurd: Beltre, who didn't want to leave, gave the Dodgers every chance to match the Mariners' deal and the Dodgers refused to even come close.

ESPN.com's SportsNation also had an online survey among the questions:

With Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre in the lineup, what happens to the Mariners in 2005?
51.8% Contend for playoffs
20.3% Around .500
16.2% Win the AL West
10.6% Win the wild card
1.2% Same as last year

How many home runs will Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre hit for the Mariners?
39.6% 61-70
28.2% 51-60
20.3% 71-80
6.1% More than 80
5.8% Less than 50

Who would you rather have for $115 million?

71.6% Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson
28.4% Carlos Beltran

Where does a lineup of Ichiro, Raul Ibanez, Bret Boone, Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson rank?

63.2% A notch below the elite but top 10
23.0% Up there with the likes of Boston, New York Yankees and St. Louis
12.3% Middle of the pack
1.5% Considering Safeco Field? Below average

Will Adrian Beltre ever match last season's numbers (.334, 48 HR, 121 RBI)?

50.8% No, his track record suggest last year was his career season
49.2% Yes, he's only 25 and will be an elite hitter for at least four or five years

Out of 21,511 responses (polls still open)

Interesting stuff!

Trading Day

2004-12-16T19:36:00.000-08:00

Hot Stove rumors are quickly turning into hard news. With Richie Sexson signed and Adrian Beltre all but signed, no one would fault Mariner fans for not paying close attention to other dealings around MLB. I simply haven't even had the time to formulate a reaction yet.

Regardless, some pretty interested deals are happening. So, there's probably 3 things (hot-stove related) that could keep the Beltre to Mariners story off the front page tomorrow. Two of them happened:

Randy Johnson nearly a Yankee. Tonight, New York Newsday is reporting that Randy Johnson is going to the Yankees in a three team deal that involved the Dodgers. The report said:

The Yankees would receive the 41-year-old Johnson in the deal while sending pitcher Javier Vazquez and two minor-league prospects, catcher Dioner Navarro and third baseman Eric Duncan, to the Dodgers, according to an Arizona source. The Dodgers would send pitchers Brad Penny and Yhency Brazoban and outfielder/first baseman Shawn Green to Arizona to complete the deal.

Talk about your complicated deals. If true, there's an A-Rod and Big Unit reunion is in the making. Nice. Talk about two guys who deserve each other. George Steinbrenner has been obsessing about Randy Johnson for six months, so there's no way this deal wasn't going to get figured out. I vote for the Dodgers as the losers in this deal ... but clearly the cash is going to help them. If they spend it.

Tim Hudson traded to the Braves. The Braves and Athletics prove once again that they are probably the smartest franchises in baseball. And sometimes the smart guys have to deal with each other. The Braves complete a trade with Oakland acquiring Hudson for Charles Thomas, Juan Cruz, and Dan Meyer. The Braves get done what the Orioles, Dodgers, and Cardinals could not. Here's Peter Gammons take on the trade. By the way, this is where Gammons is at his best. As opposed to when he's trying to get the scoop on rumors (when he's always wrong) ... so it's worth a read.

Update: Oh yeah! ... You might be wondering what's the third thing that could have happened? Beltre's Boras stablemate Beltran signing. That is going to take longer.

Gammons: Mariners sign Beltre, 5 years, $65M

2004-12-16T13:26:00.000-08:00

ESPN's Peter Gammons is reporting that the Mariners have reached a 5 year deal with Adrian Beltre for ~~$65M~~$64M (as usual the numbers change ... and what's $1M among friends?). This confirms last night's report in the Seattle Times that Beltre and Mariners were close on a 5 year deal for $60+M. Gammons reports that the Mariners offer beat out the Dodgers who were offering 6 years and a 7th year option, but at less money.

I'll post further when additional details emerge, but I'm very happy about a potential Beltre signing. If the deal is as reported, my take is that it's reasonable valuation for young player who was shown superstar potential and is entering his prime.

Update: It's definitely true ... 4 hours later ... i'm still shocked that it happened. Shocked and impressed. A recent report filed by the AP includes these quotes from Dodgers' GM Paul DePodesta:

"We're disappointed. It hurts," Dodgers general manager Paul DePodesta said. "Obviously, we would have loved to have him back."

"I think all of us knew this certainly was a possibility. We feel like we stepped up and made a very competitive offer, actually tried to make it a compelling one by offering a sixth guaranteed year. Unfortunately for us, Adrian decided to go elsewhere."

....

DePodesta said the Dodgers' six-year offer to Beltre and agent Scott Boras included an option for a seventh season.

When asked if the Dodgers were given a final say in the matter, DePodesta said: "Not in so many words. They didn't come back and say if you can do this, he's coming back."

"Scott did have a sense of urgency, we did try to step up to that. That really wasn't the forum. But then again, I'm not blaming Scott for that, either. Everything he did in this process was above board. There's no villain here," he said. "At the end of the day, Seattle stepped up and made a great offer. We had multiple meetings, face-to-face meetings."

Although the Mariners haven't confirmed ... capitulation by your primary competitors is just as good for confirmation. The Red Sox' Larry Lucchino used almost the same words responding to reports that Pedro was signing with the Mets.

Congratulations Bavasi and the Mariners front office.

Sexson Contract ... 4 years, $50M?!?

2004-12-15T16:36:00.000-08:00

Wow ... the AP just reported on Sexson's deal. According to the article, it's 4 years, $50M! The deal was originally rumored to be anywhere from 3 years/$33M to 4 years/$48M. This is more that anyone thought.

From the artice: He gets a $6 million signing bonus, $4.5 million next season, $11.5 million in 2006 and $14 million in each of the final two seasons."

Wow ... now it's official ... we got taken.

Update (6:00 pm): I took a quick scan of reaction to the Sexson contract and as you would expect it's mixed. There's disappointment over the dollars and length of the deal, some optimism that the low 2005 salary means that additional moves are coming, and a lot of concern that the 2007 & 2008 numbers will come back to haunt the Mariners.

The national and local media haven't reacted yet, so it will be interesting to see that come out. However I do not expect much national reaction, because the Pedro to the Mets story is grabbing those headlines. $50M doesn't buy you the attention it used to.

Also, the annoying "Sex" derived headlines have arrived. Heard so far: "The Joy of Sexson" (komo tv), "Sexson the City" (king tv) and "Sexson Appeal" (foxnews.com).

Mariners sign Richie Sexson for 4 years

2004-12-15T16:10:00.000-08:00

Finally ... the saga is over ... Richie Sexson signs with the Mariners for 4 years. At this point, the dollars are unknown, but the reports are $44-48M. No word on any incentives or health-related provisions. Sexson has been reported to be against both ... so it's unlikely.

I've previously posted that I am against the Sexson signing due to injury risk. Now the deal is done .... it doesn't matter. I just hope the physical exam vetted all the issues and that he stays healthy.

Welcome home, Richie.

Niehaus - Finalist for Ford C. Frick Award

2004-12-14T13:45:00.000-08:00

Ahhh ... a break from the Hot Stove!

Dave Niehaus was the top vote-getter among fans for the Baseball Hall of Fame's 2005 Ford C. Frick Award for broadcasters. The Mariners broadcaster since 1977, Niehaus received 14,940 votes increasing his total from the 13,044 votes he received last year. Hopefully, a few of those votes were a result of some of this blog's readers linking from my earlier post.

Last year, Niehaus was second in the online voting to the Giants' Lon Simmons who eventually was named the 2004 winner. So perhaps placing first this year puts Dave in a good position to win. The winer will be annouced in February.

Anyway, it's a nice break from watching to see if Sexson, Delgado or Beltre (or their agents) sneeze and then trying to infer something from it. Plus, how often do you get to type and say "Frick"?

Lastly ... there's recently been a nice uptick in traffic here at the "House that Edgar Built". In fact, the site had its 1000th visitor and 1500th hit (since counting started October 1st). (Sorry, there weren't prizes ... maybe at 1M). So welcome to readers both new (and old). I encourage you to post comments, thoughts, news, and rumors about the Ms, the Hot Stove, or other baseball stuff. I hope you enjoy the site and please let me know if there's anything I can do to make your stay here more informative or fun. Go Mariners!

Winter Meetings wrap up

2004-12-13T15:16:00.000-08:00

The annual Winter Meetings wrap up today and baseball's power elite prepare head home ... with or without done deals. Today the following were announced or rumored:

Richie Sexson. Last night, both the PI and Times were definitive in the story that Sexson will be a Mariner. In the light of day, it appears there may be some cracks in the story. First, no meida seems to be able to figure out what the agreed terms are. It's been speculated that the terms are 3 years, $33M by CBS Sportsline, to 4 year, $44M, and even up to 5 years. So that's a hint. Second, last night the Orioles claimed they were still in it. And today the AP reports the Mariners are "trying" to get the deal done. From the article:

Sexson's agent, Casey Close, said that Seattle and Baltimore were still competing for Sexson. "Nothing is conclusive at this moment. We'll have to see where this thing goes the next 24, 48 hours,'' Close said. "It's all speculative as to what people's perspectives are.''

I was very surprised to generally positive reaction to the story this morning. For example, the KJR talking heads seem to support it, their callers were positive, and several folks posting on the PI blog seem to be happy. The primary dissenting voices seem to be fellow bloggers such as myself. As I posted last night, "I'm completely against signing Sexson."

The arguments for support seems to be centered around (1) Sexson had great power numbers in Milwaukee and it would translate in Seattle and (2) at least the Mariners did something significant. I can agree with those statements. (1) Richie Sexson is a talented player who I'm sure can transition back to AL and be productive in a way that Cirllio and Aurilia for example could not. But they are 2 years ago are they not? (2) Signing Sexson would be doing something ... but how much credit should we be giving them for that? As fans who provide the 3rd highest revenue in MLB, shouldn't our expectations be higher than just signing any name player?

The general arguments against Sexson (to summarize other bloggers) are that Sexson's shoulder injury has historically had a good probability of reoccurring leadind to a poor "risk/reward balance" (thanks USS Mariner for that term) with Sexson. Simply stated, the Mariners must protect themselves from being in a position where they are paying players who cannot perform.

So if the Sexson offer is a 4 year deal heavy on performance incentives (say $6M/yr guaranteed up to $11M with relatively easily reached performance incentives for full employment) or a 3 year deal with some incentives (say $8M/yr guaranteed up to say $12M with performance and a 4th year vesting option), then I'm okay with that. But I'm not hopeful since Sexson has gone on record stating he doesn't think he should have sign a contract with incentives. Sexson is "confident" in the health of his shoulder, but not confident enough to put it in writing. That attitude really bothers me. And that's why I'm completely against signing him. But I'll wait until I hear the deal terms before we can call this a bad deal

Pedro Martinez to the ... Mets? What the heck? The media is reporting that the Mets will give Pedro 4 guaranteed years. Pedro got his ring and he's going to bolt for Mets purgatory for a few million dollars. No offense to Mets fans, but there's a lot of issues there. Who needs that in the last years of his career? Doesn't he want to come back to Fenway the hero? The Red Sox offer wasn't his top offer, but it was decent. I guess no one leaves money on the table anymore.

Corey Koskie, Toronto, 3 years, $17M. That rumor turned out to be true ... too many years, too much money. Sounds like a broken record.

White Sox - Milwaukee Trade. Ken Williams ships Carlos Lee to the Brewers for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino and a player to be named later. I gotta give Doug Melvin credit for figuring out how to do something with nothing. That guy is creative. He gets 6 decent players from the D'backs for Sexson who only played 23 games. Now this. I (like everyone else) am trying to figure out why this makes any sense for the White Sox. Some have speculated that there may be more deals coming ... perhaps involving Podsednik. We'll see ...

Mike Matheny, Giants, 3 years, ~~$9M~~ $10.5M. Looks like this ends A.J. Pierzynski's stay in SF. I think AJ really pissed off Sabean when he won his arbitration case after being traded to the Giants last year. I wonder where he's going to end up ...

Finally this evening ... Estaban Yan, Angels, 2 years, ~~$3M~~ $2.25M. That sounds better ... some of the early reported numbers were kind of sloppy tonight.

Update (7:30 pm): One more tonight ... the Indians sign Jose Hernandez for 1 year, $1.8M

On the Beltre front, the Orange County Register is reporting that the rumored 7 year, $90M offer was not made by the Mariners. "That's been floated. But not by us," Mariners GM Bill Bavasi said. "We have not offered anyone a seven-year contract." And this:"We would certainly be prepared to (make an offer) at this point, but he (Boras) has made it clear to me what we'd offer at this point wouldn't be acceptable," DePodesta said. "That's a tough game of poker. It only takes one team to step up and make an offer, and you lose the player."

Hmmm ... so that's interesting, the 7/$90M numbers are in the negotiations but not offered by a team. Here's a wild guess ... it's Boras up to his tricks. Spreading a little rumors. Confirmed by off-shore local news. Get things started. Clever.

Update (10:15 pm): According to an AP report this evening, "A Seattle executive told an agent that the Mariners thought they were close to agreement on a three-year contract with Sexson. An official of another team that had sought the first baseman said the deal being discussed averaged about $11 million." So were back to 3 years/$33M. I still question the deal, but 3 years takes the sting out a little.

Also, if you care about Randy Johnson, the D'Backs have contacted the Yankees again. Since NY is the only place Randy will agree to be traded, Arizona needs them if they want to move him.

Update (11:00 pm): ESPN is reporting that "The Seattle Mariners were finalizing a deal with Richie Sexson late Monday night, while the Baltimore Orioles, who also pursued the free-agent slugger at baseball's winter meetings, were completely out of the running. Reports have the deal for three or four years at somewhere between $33 million and $45 million, pending a physical on Sexson's left shoulder." This Sexson deal is moving sooooo slow ... it's like watching paint dry. Then again that describes the whole "hot stove" ... nevermind.

Update (12:30 am): Tonight the Seattle Times is slightly backing away from the Sexson story reporting that the deal isn't done "just yet". But the are saying the deal could be 4 years, $48M. That's bad. But there was some good in the article. It goes on to say that the Mariners were "growing frustrated" with Delgado and were putting more effort into Beltre including a meeting with Boras yesterday. Although they had 2 meetings with Delgado's agent ... so go figure. It's been reported elsewhere that the number for Delgado is up to 5 years, $65M which is up considerably from some estimates of 3 years, $18-24M before the off-season dealing began.

This passage cracked me up:

"And for a player causing so much consternation over his health, Sexson was known as an ironman until last season.

"This guy wants to play every inning of every game," said Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin, who traded Sexson to Arizona last winter for six players, mainly because the Brewers couldn't afford him."

"I remember, he got hit by Juan Cruz, the Cubs pitcher (in 2003)," Melvin said. "He just drilled him in the ribs, and Richie went down. We said, 'Oops, there's his streak. There's no way he's going to play.'

"He would not come out of the game. He could hardly swing the next at-bat. But he played the rest of the game, came back, played the next game and kept on playing."

It's great that he had great heart and wants to play. No one is questioning that. But if Sexson reinjures his shoulder, he cannot play. Big difference.

Update (1:00 am): I just can't help myself. This from the Hartford Courant, "Beltran won't take a tour of teams, like Pavano did. "A lot of that stuff has already been done," said Scott Boras, his agent. Boras said Beltran has narrowed the field to five. The Yankees, Astros, Tigers, Mariners and Cubs are probably the five."

That's the kind of good news I need!

Oh %$@& ... Mariners land Sexson

2004-12-12T21:19:00.000-08:00

Tonight the Seattle PI is reporting that the Mariners have reached a contract agreement with Richie Sexson subject to him passing a physical. Fox Sports/Sporting News is reporting similar information. Contract terms haven't been disclosed, but I'm sure they will come out. And it will be for more money than Sexson should get.

What can I say? I'm completely against signing Sexson. But it looks inevitable that I'll have to cheer for him next year ...

Update (11:50 pm): More bad news ... the PI updated the article and I quote: "This might be the only top-tier signing by the Mariners this winter. Bavasi admitted the surprisingly inflated market could decrease the number of free agents he is able to sign." If it's true, that's very sad and depressing. Sexson cannot be the Mariner's only answer to 2004. Even the D'Backs who are in complete disarray are doing more. I really hoped the naysayers were wrong and that the Mariners would find their backbone this off-season, but more and more it looks like they might be right and the market is just going to pass the Ms by.

Now for some good news (because I really need some right about now), Corey Koskie and the Blue Jays have reportedly agreed to a 3 year, $17M contract. That's a ridiculous deal for player like Koskie. I'm so glad we're not dealing with that too.

Update (12:30 am): Is there hope? Could it be that the Sexson deal is a figment of the Seattle PI's imagination? A mirage? According to Jim Street's report on the Mariner website, "Several Major League sources told MLB.com on Sunday night that the Mariners were on the verge of signing Sexson to a multiyear contract and one agent said the deal already had been completed. But a Mariners official said nothing has been finalized." I really hope the PI is wrong. The Baltimore Sun is reporting that the Orioles believe they still have a chance at Sexson. But then again, the Seattle Times is carrying the Sexson to Mariners story for tomorrow. So who knows? We'll see tomorrow.

More Winter Meetings Noise

2004-12-11T23:58:00.000-08:00

After furious activity in the days leading up to the Wineter Meetings, rumors are still flying around but press conference action has calmed down somewhat and guys like Arthur Rhodes and Dan Kolb are making the headlines. There's still activity among the headliners - Carl Pavano deciding on the Yankees, Jaret Wright flunking his Yankees' physical ... and then passing it, Roger Clemens accepting Astros arbitration (but may retire yet), and Renteria being wooed by the RedSox. Other than Boomer ... no real signings of significance. So on to the rumors:

The Dodgers' Paul DePodesta is reported by the AP as saying that the Dodgers want Beltre back but are willing to go with other options. To quote the report: "DePodesta noted that teams who play one player far more than his teammates often haven't fared well. "If the resources are a little more spread around, you're a little more flexible," he said." How conceited ... thanks for your concern Paul ... worry about your own team.
The PI had Bavasi's reaction to the Pavano news. To quote the PI: "He had said from the very, very start that the decision was going to be emotional and personal, and not all about money," Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi said. "It's conceivable that our offer might have been better. We have no idea. The initial offers -- (agent Scott Shapiro) told us ours was at least as good as, or maybe even a little bit better, than New York's." That's really rough ... make a better offer and still lose out. That the risk I meant in my earlier post about the risks of going for tier 1 guys. The article goes on to say that Mariners expressed interest in one of Boras' pitching clients ... which could mean Derek Lowe, Kevin Millwood, or Eric Milton ... or Ron Villone. Just kidding.
Richie Sexson rode into town a few days late and met with several interested clubs including the Mariners. From the same PI report, Bavasi said "It was nice to meet him. It was the first time I had met him. It was probably helpful to him, too. My guess is that he's got at least a few clubs to talk to." Does not sound like a ringing endorsement to me.
The Seattle Times reports that the Mariners also met with Corey Koskie's agent. So that thread is still open. Koskie has been offered 3 years, $20M by the Blue Jays (why?). But he seems to be in hot demand as a reported fallback for Dodgers. See? The market for fallbacks is on the rise.
The same Times report indicates that the Andruw Jones rumor is nonsense.
Reports are that Beltre has been offered 7 years by the Dodgers and 6 years by the Mariners.
According to this report from San Bernadino, the Angels are interested in Ron Villone. Really? I don't think so. They might be interested only to drive up the Mariners price. The Angels are reportedly close with Matt Clement at 3 years and $7-9M per.

As I posted earlier today, I said that I would name the player I would like to see the Mariners go for broke on. No surprise, that player is Carlos Beltran. Yeah, yeah, I know, it's easy to say that your team should go after the years' highest profile free agent. But I have my reasons ... and I think they are decent.

In my previous post, I noted that signing a tier one player for 7 (or 10!) years is more than merely signing a player. It's making an investment in the future of the franchise. And as important as a players' physical talents are intangibles like character, leadership, etc.

First, everything I know about Beltran indicates that he's a guy in the "Mariners' mold". A lot of us hard core baseball fans hate the "character guy" label used to justify so many crappy Ms signings. But character is important with the franchise player and you can bet Beltran will be doing charity work right next to Jamie Moyer. Second, Beltran is not known as a vocal clubhouse guy but his personailty fits with the Mariners style of "clubhouse professionalism" (another term I love to hate).

Beltran is flat out talented ... and at 27 he will be for a long time. I'm sure there are analysis out there saying that he isn't worth a huge investment ... that he'll be neutralized at Safeco ... etc ... etc. But I don't care. If Beltran busts, I be eating these words for a long time. But I don't think I will. I've seem him play and he's exactly what the Mariners need. Not to fill a role but to build a franchise around.

Okay so say Beltran is worth a Mariners investment. But why are the Mariners worth a Beltran investment? As I posted earlier, going for tier 1 players is risky business. There's a lot of reasons why someone would pull a "Pavano" (From this point forward, the term for a player who spurns a team for reasons outside the teams' direct control). Could this happen with Beltran? Sure. Anything can happen and the Astros and Yankees are willing to move heaven and earth to sign Beltran. Yet, I think the Mariners could have an excellent chance. It's said that Beltran doesn't seek the bright lights and big city. Seattle is like KC in a way that Houston and certainly New York are not. So perhaps our little corner of the country is actually an asset rather than the liability that it usually is.

Personally, I think Beltran fits the Mariners like few other "investment" free agents do. Sexson doesn't. Delgado doesn't. Even Beltre doesn't. I would love to see the team focus on Beltran and take a big risk there. If the Mariners fail, I will not blame Bavasi if they make the top, premier, "investment"-level offer to Beltran and he passes for reasons outside their control. It'll be painful because at that point in the off-season there will be precious few options left and it'll be another off-season with the Aurilias and Speizios of the world. I'd rather see that than Sexson or Koskie.

I'm a realist though. For a lot of reasons, I don't see the Go for Broke /Beltran scenario happening. But in my perspective it would be the right thing.

Update (11:00 am): Larry LaRue agrees with me, from this morning's Tacoma News Tribune :"Roll the Dice on Beltran - It really isn't a gamble".

"If Bill Bavasi departs the winter meetings without a top free agent – or, more accurately, when Bavasi departs the winter meetings without a top free agent – Beltran must be made the Mariners’ No. 1 priority."

This morning ... zero new activity to speak of. Either everyone is huddled down doing deals or watching football. In the meantime, check out Peter White's entries in Mariner Musings. A very entertaining first-hand account of the Winter Meetings.

"Big Papi" wins Papi's award

2004-12-11T20:06:00.000-08:00

Congratulations to Boston's David "Big Papi" Ortiz for winning the 2004 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award. The DH award was renamed in Edgar's honor by Commissioner Bud Selig during Edgar's retirement ceremony at the end of the 2004 season. Ortiz won the award in 2003 and joins Edgar, Don Baylor, Harold Baines, and Dave Parker as a back-to-back winner.

David Wells to Red Sox

2004-12-11T11:03:00.000-08:00

David Wells, Red Sox, 2 years, $8-$18M. Boomer's deal rumored to be 1 year, $6.5M expands this morning to another year (of course Gammons was wrong!). The AP reports that Wells "gets a $3 million signing bonus and a salary of $2.5 million a year. In addition, he would earn $200,000 per start from 11-20 and $300,000 per start from 21-30." The RedSox will give up a pick to the Padres since Wells was offered arbitration. According to some reports, the Wells signing puts the Red Sox out of the Pavano race.

Give Theo Epstein credit for putting together an innovative deal in a unique circumstance. This is a fair deal that pays for play. Plain and simple. And it gives Boomer some incentive for staying out of bar fights and not "falling in his kitchen". Wells gives the Sox a left-hander to mix up their rotation. Last year, they only had 1 lefty start ... not that it really hindered them.

Mariners. No new ~~news~~ rumors regarding the Mariners pursuits of Beltre, Ddelgado, or Pavano. While there's this break in the Mariners rumorland, I had a few thoughts ...

Seeing players like Finley, Wells, Kent, Ortiz go off the board doesn't bother me at all. With other teams signing these tier 2, plan Bs, fallback players, the market is rapidly turning into a market of tier 1 and tier 3 players. It's good to see the Mariners not rush into deals because players of some profile are falling. The best approach for the Mariners is to make investments in 1 or 2 long term tier 1 players and fill out the roster with young talent and cheap veteran scrubs. But this approach has it's risks.

First, getting a tier one to agree to Seattle is no simple task. There are precious few tier 1 players and with limited supply, there's a lot of variabiliy in what it takes to sign them. Some will want to go to a storied franchise for the historical impact, some will want to be close to thier homes, some will want money, some will want security. They have a separate market perhaps driven more by comparables from tier 1s in other off-seasons than from other players in their same off-season. The risk here is going for broke with tier 1s, it's possible the Mariners can get shut-out.

Second, once signed, a tier 1 player becomes more than a mere component of the team. Unless of course you're the Yankees loaded with tier 1s. It's a long-term investment in a cornerstone that will shape the team. So intangibles like player character, health and personality become more critical. Not sure? Ask the Portland Trail Blazers about signing questionable character guys to long-term deals.

So while, there's been considerable criticism of Bavasi after the 2004 debacle ... some justified, some not. It's in this off-season that he's going to make his mark. Will it be a weak stab, a black mark, or a bold franchise-altering strike? He's in a position of "must" succeed. And while his performance will be rated by March ... we may be discussing his impact for years to come.

(There is one player that I would like to see the Mariners go for broke on in terms of the off-season. I'll leave that open as a teaser for the next entry ...)

Update (12:50 pm): According to FoxSports' Ken Rosenthal (who is right about 1/2 as often as Peter Gammons, who is never right), "The Braves might be looking to trade Andruw Jones, with the Mariners among the teams interested in the multi-dimensional center fielder." Oh man ... let's hope that's not true.

Update (3:00 pm): Round-up:

Arthur Rhodes, the well-travelled ex-Mariner, has been traded (again). This to the Indians for Matt Lawton
Elsewhere, Roger Clemens has accepted the Astros arbitration offer, although he may yet still retire. the annual "will he or won't he" retire drama continues
According to the SF Chronicle, the Mariners would consider trading Winn, but only in a package that would take Spiezio off their hands
The Boston Red Sox appear to be leaders in landing Edgar Renteria for 4 years, $40M (which is astronomical for him) who the Mariners were looking at as a potential fallback option (with Lopez moving to 3rd). Besides for us there can only be one "Edgar"
The Pavano to Yankees seems to be gaining traction with the rumored money up to 4 years/$46M
Peter Gammons is reporting that our old friend John Halama has agreed to a 1 year, $1M deal with the RedSox.

Update (5:00 pm): According to the AP, Pavano has decided that on the Yankees. The quote Shapiro as saying "Number one, he wants to win," Shapiro said. "We have to really hunker down and have some serious negotiations to hammer out the deal." The deal is reportedly for 4 years, between $39 and $46M with a fifth year option. Fine with me.

According to ESPN, the Yankees deal with Wright is being held up because he failed his physical and is being asked to take another. Should the Yankees throw Wright back into the market, his value just took a major hit.

More weird stuff ... from the AP: "Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman arrived in a lobby filled with baseball executives and agents accompanied by two tall showgirls wearing feathered headdresses and an one gold-clad Elvis impersonator, campaigning for major league baseball to put a team in the gambling mecca." More. That's a pretty darn funny.

Update (8:20 pm): The Baltimore Sun is reporting that the Os are relooking at their offer to ~~Sexson~~ Delgado which was previously 3 years, $30M. It's believed that the Mariners offer is 4 year, $44M. I say ... let 'em. Oops ... serves me right for not proof reading!

Winter Meetings Day 1 ... Some Talk, Some Action

2004-12-11T01:30:00.000-08:00

The first official day of the MLB's GM Winter Meetings in Anahiem has wrapped up ... there's been some news and a lot of rumors. First the Mariners' rumors:

Adrian Beltre: No doubt the biggest Mariners' story is the pursuit of Beltre. As I wrote yesterday, a persistent rumor has been circling blogs & message forums that the Mariners have offered Beltre a 7 year/$90M deal. Larry Stone of the Seattle Times confirmed that Mariners are pursuing Beltre and writes:

There was confirmation yesterday from a baseball source that the club has made an offer, reportedly significant, to third baseman Adrian Beltre, one of the jewels of the free-agent marketplace.

In concert with their serious play for first baseman Carlos Delgado, the M's insist they aren't just paying lip service to improving the team's offense.

"If they're one of the better players, we'll be in on them," Bavasi said. "There's probably not a lot of guys you can't mention."

So there it is. No further confirmation of deal terms. ESPN.com is naming the Mariners as the "favorite" to land Beltre. Finally, the guys at the USS Mariner thought they *might* have confirmation that the Beltre deal was done ... before retracting it an hour and a half later. So there's a lot of conjecture right now, but no real tangible confirmation from Beltre or the Ms. As of this evening, Bavasi only confirmed that he has had "at least one meeting" with Beltre's agent Scott Boras. But those meetings could have been about Boras' other client Ron Villone, so it means nothing. As I said yesterday ... stay tuned ....

Carl Pavano: But wait fans! That's not all. (I need a set of steak knives here.) According to Peter Gammons (not that he's Mr. Credible), the Mariners are evidently still in the race for Pavano along with ... you guessed it ... the RedSox and the Yankees.

According to reports, Pavano had an very positive visit to Seattle (maybe he likes the rain) and was very impressed with the park and the Ms staff. He cancelled his planned visit to Anaheim and flew back to his home in Montreal to "continue his workout regimen." Dedicated guy. Bavasi and Pavano's agent Scott Shapiro had a 3 hour lunch on Thursday morning.

As of this evening, there are more rumors floating around that Pavano has been offered 5 years/$60M by the Mariners. According to an AP report, Shapiro said that " all the teams competing for Pavano had offered contracts of at least four years." A separate AP report, has Pavano nearing agreement with the Yankees on a 4 year, $42M deal. The report goes on to say that signing Pavano doesn't rule out the Yankees closing the Jaret Wright deal (which still isn't officially done, despite being reported 2 days ago), but does rule out signing Eric Milton. The smart money is on the Yankees for Pavano. The Mariners are likely going to have to move on to plan B which is ... Matt Clement? Odalis Perez?

Update (10:30 am): TNT reports identifies the Tigers as offering 5 years and Pavano's agent is naming the Tigers and the Yankees as the top current contentders.

Carlos Delgado. Nothing really new on the Delgado front. The rumor is that the Orioles are the front-runners for Delgado. He's said to like Baltimore and prefer the East Coast which is closer to his home. There are also reports the the Rangers may be interested in making him a DH.

Richie Sexson. Things have gotten quiet on the Sexson front which means one of two things. The Mariners have moved on or they are pressing his suit for the news conference. The Mets have made Sexson an offer, but it's rumored that it's a ploy by the Sexson camp to drive up his price and that he's very close to signing the Ms offer. Bummer. I think his injured wing is going to be a long-term problem for us. But you know how the Mariners front office loves the local boys ... they think that that us fans actually care. I don't care one bit. The happiness I feel over the Beltre rumors will be completely eroded if Bavasi brings back Sexson with him from Anahiem.

On to the actual news:

Russ Ortiz, Diamondbacks, 4 years, $33M. A surprising deal for a number of reasons. Ortiz is a workhorse, and this could signal the end of the road for Randy Johnson. The D'Backs may be quite a bit more motivated to move the Big Unit now they have a legitimate top of the order guy. Gammons is reporting that everyone in baseball is wondering where all this money is coming from since the franchise is supposedly close to bankrupcy.

David Wells, RedSox, 1 year, $6.5M. Theo Epstien digging at King George here. Steinbrenner loves Wells (who is a big Babe Ruth fan) so seeing him as a Red Sox will hurt some.

Steve Finley, Angels, 2 years, $14M. Yesterday this was rumored to be $20, then $15-20M, now $14M. Whatever the dollars ... it now appears the Angels are no longer looking to sign Beltran.

Richard Hidalgo, Rangers, 1 year, $5M. It's back to Texas for Hidalgo who was run out of Houston making way for Beltran. Hidalgo who struggled for a long time promptly caught fire in NY. Here's hoping he finds his struggling ways in a Rangers uni (sorry Texas people).

Update (10:30am): The Larry LaRue of the Tacoma News Tribune discusses the winter meetings and has update on several pursuits including Beltre, Pavano, and Delgado:

Detroit is in the bidding for Beltre and that it's the Dodgers that have offered Beltre the seven year offer
Mariners offered Pavano 4 years in the neighborhood of $40M

Rangers have dropped out of the Delgado bidding at 4 years/$32M

Arizona has an on the table offer to Sexson for 4 years/$40M. Which if I'm not mistaken is a raise in their offer. There's is a separate report that the Arizona is planning to pay for their new ig contracts with savings from dropping Sexson and Finley from the payroll. So go figure.

And these choice tidbits ... the Mariners wonder if Corey Koskie is "another Scott Spiezio" ... and Jeromy Burnitz wants "more money Finley got - and more years".

Finally this quote: "“There’s no sense of urgency,” Bavasi said. “We have a lot to do. But I don’t know that we’ll come away from these meetings with anything. I know we’re trying. We’d like all the players we’re pursuing, but now it’s a matter of in what combinations? The market changing could alter that considerably. Is it possible we could get, say, Delgado and Sexson? Yes. It’s possible."

Don't get burned on that Hot Stove

2004-12-09T16:53:00.000-08:00

The 2004 off-season got off to an agonizingly slow start ... filled with watching teams deal for the Mike Redmonds of the world ... now things are definintely heating up. First, Troy Glaus signs. Now, Jeff Kent has inked a 2 year, $17M deal with the Dodgers according to the Associated Press. I can't wait to hear the booing that ex-Giant Kent will recieve the first time he visits SBC Park in San Francisco wearing the hated Dodger Blue. I'm sure I'll hear all about it from my Giants friends.

Speaking of Dodger blues, there is also word that the Angels are pursuing ex-Dodger Steve Finley for a 2 year deal which would net him $20M. That would take a bidder out of the Beltran sweeps.

Finally to round out this Dodgers update, for the past several days there has been a wild rumor going around the internet that the Mariners have offered Adrian Beltre a 7 year, $90M contract. Reportedly discussed on sports radio in LA or SD. At this point, I don't know of any mainstream media confirmation. Quite frankly, I find it extremely hard to believe. It would be completely out of character for the Mariners management. So stay tuned ...

Update: Eric Young signs with Padres for 1 year, $1M according to the San Diego Union Tribune.

Melvin gets Troy Glaus

2004-12-09T10:48:00.000-08:00

According to the Arizona Republic, Troy Glaus has agreed to a 4 year, $45M deal with the Diamondbacks. According to the article, Glaus will be paid "a $4 million signing bonus and a salary of $8.25 million this season. He'll make $9.25 million in 2006, $10.75 million in 2007 and $12.75 million in 2008." Glaus was pursued by the Mariners at some level. The media accounts didn't make it sound too serious, but how serious we'll probably never know. He was also pursued by the Tigers, Mets and Orioles among others.

Glaus is a talent that you would love to have and under healthy circumstances this is probably a good deal for a player of his caliber. But he has missed a lot of games over the last couple of years with shoulder problems. In my opinion, this contract is a lot of risk in both money and years for a guy who may have continuing health issues.

I am a bit surprised as I thought Glaus would have wanted something like a 2 year deal to demonstrate that he's healthy and then go for a blockbuster deal in 2007. Something like the tack that Nomar seems to be taking. Either that or something very incentive laden. It would have been interesting to see the other deals offered to Glaus. It's possible that Glaus took the longest contract offered to him ... perhaps looking for security because he's not as confident about his own health?

Going to the D'Backs is certainly an interesting proposition for Glaus. From a team on the rise like the Angels to a team in turmoil like Arizona. A few days ago there were reports that the D'Backs wanted Glaus to play some first base and Glaus wanted the third base job exclusively, so that issue must have been resolved.

Injury & team situations aside, Glaus is a "name" in the 2004 Free Agent market. So what does this tell us about the market? Probably nothing about the top names, Beltre and Beltran. Perhaps it's an indicator that the midlevel market is indeed rising for both pitchers and hitters. But more appropriately Glaus' deal hints that we won't see many injury discounted deals (in dollars and/or length) for guys like Carlos Delgado, Magglio Ordonez (if he is recovered!), JD Drew, and Richie Sexson.

I'm satisfied that the Mariners didn't sign Glaus ... and happy it wasn't for this kind of deal. I had perferred him to Richie Sexson (and certainly Corey Koskie!), but still much lower than some other options. One thing is for sure ... the FA options at the hot corner are certainly dwindling.

Update (12:00): Another deal was signed this morning: Jermaine Dye was signed by the White Sox for 2 years, $10.15M. Dye's deal is for $4M in 2005, $5M in 2006, and a club option $6M for 2007 (or $1.15M buyout). The As paid Dye $11.7M the last two seasons ... a lot for his 23 HR/.265 BA/.793 OPS production. Dye will replace Magglio Ordonez (who was not given arbitration) in right field.

Update #2 (1:00): ESPN.com's Jim Caple has an most excellent article discussing the Mariners off-season (thanks PI Blog for the link). Caple calls out Mariners' front office for not acquring players when needed in 2000, 2002, and 2003 saying :

Had Seattle taken on additional salary by acquiring the needed players then, the Mariners: a.) might have reached the World Series for the first time; b.) probably would have made the postseason in four consecutive seasons; c.) most likely wouldn't have declined so horribly last year; and d.) definitely wouldn't be experiencing such a costly attendance drop. They've lost more than 600,000 fans since 2002.

He calls them out for not spending the Kaz money, for having an almost barren farm system, and on and on ... stopping himself only with an "Enough Already!" He throws out that the Mariners "need to add power to the lineup, they need a third baseman and they need someone who can cover more ground in center field than Randy Winn. In other words, they need Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran. Those two would be perfect fits for Seattle." And then goes on to say that the Mariners never sign top talent and that the Mariners will go after "the next level of affordable free agents". Exactly the type of Free Agent that the market shows everyone overpaying for ... but I digress.

It almost sounds like Caple is daring the Mariners front office to prove him wrong. It's really great to see this in the mainstream, national media. Not that it's going to change the Mariners plans but it's good to see the front office called out on the carpet. Of course, credit the national media ... the local media has been all but silent on the matter.

Update #3 (1:45 pm): The first media report of a Mariners offer to Carl Pavano ... courtsey of the Bergen Record (that's North Jersey) located here (registration required or go to bugmenot.com). "According to a source close to the negotiations, Seattle has offered a substantial package for Pavano, whose agent also spoke to Cashman again Wednesday." I wonder what "substantial" is ....

Another pitcher signing: Woody Williams to Padres

2004-12-08T19:20:00.000-08:00

This afternoon, the Padres announced Woody Williams signed a one year deal for $3.5M. The deal includes a 2006 club option and could pay Williams up to $14.5 depending on how much he starts.

I was just saying the mid-priced pitcher market was competitive and another one gets locked up. All the news reports have stated that Pavano isn't a realistic option for the Ms. A quick search on MLB.com's free agent tracker shows just 27 starting pitchers left and that includes Ron Villone! You have a bunch of guys who want $10M/season (or more) ... Pedro, Pavano, Ortiz, Lowe ... and then the third and fourth tiers. The Mariners' usual plan of targeting the second-tier may not work as the options are quickly dwindling. The Phillies, Yankees, Padres, and Mets beat 'em to the mediocre signings.

I've always been a sucker graphical analysis and their ability to show trends clearly and simply. Jeff at the Leone for Third blog has developed an elegant graphical analysis charting a Free Agent's salary (computed as overall deal dollars/years) to his VORP. He graphs the 2003 off-season and this 2004 off-season to date. While very few deals have completed so far this off-season, the market appears to be up from last year. His analysis also shows that the Free Agent market tends to be uneven with earlier deals getting less VORP for a club's money than deals completed later in the off-season.

I recommend you check out Jeff's interesting analysis in it's entirety. As the Guinness guys might say: Brilliant!

A Million here, A Million there ...

2004-12-08T13:34:00.000-08:00

... pretty soon you're talking real money. At the arbitration deadline, a flurry of new deals. Of note:

Nomar Garciaparra, Cubs, 1 year, $8M (with additional $3M in incentives). After an injury marred 2004, Nohmah is reestablishing his value in hopes of a blockbuster multi-year deal next year. Of course, $8 to $11M isn't too bad for a "three-quarters" World Series champion ... is it?
Tony Womack, Yankees, 2 year, $4M. Tony Womack? I guess they aren't going to be interested in Bret Boone then ...

The market for pitchers continues to rise:

Jon Lieber, Phillies, 3 years, $21M. Press Release. Sometimes I wonder about the Phillies front office, but you gotta like the full salary disclosure in the official press release. You don't see the Mariners standard line: "Per club policy, terms of the contract were not disclosed." Which is useless since they end up getting disclosed anyway.

Jaret Wright, Yankees, 3 years, $20-21M.

Brad Radke, Twins, 2 years, $18M

Rheal Cormier, Phillies, 2 years, $5.75M

Dustin Hermanson, White Sox, 2 year, $5.5M

Antonio Alfonseca, Marlins, 2 year, $4.75M

Matt Morris, Cardinals, 1 year, $2.5M (with an additional $4.5M in incentives)

Al Leiter, Marlins, 1 year, between $6 to $8M

Mike DeJean, Mets, 1 year, $1.15M

Others:

Todd Walker, Cubs, 1 year, $2.5M. Includes a 2006 club option.

Henry Blanco, Cubs, 2 years, $2.7M

BJ Surhoff, Orioles, $1.1M

Elmer Dessens, Dodgers, $1.3M. Includes 2006 mutual option

Sandy Alomar, Rangers, $550K.

Offered Arbitration:

Twins: Corey Koskie
Marlins: Carl Pavano
D'Backs: Richie Sexson
Cubs: Matt Clement
Astros: Carlos Beltran
Dodgers: Adrian Beltre, Odalis Perez, Wilson Alvarez, Brent Mayne
Red Sox: Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek, Orlando Cabrera, Pokey Reese, David McCarty, Mike Myers
Padres: David Wells
Giants: Jason Christiansen

Not Offered Arbitration:

Blue Jays: Carlos Delgado
Twins: Corey Koskie, Terry Mulholland
Mets: Richard Hidalgo
Angels: Tory Glaus, Aaron Sele
Braves: JD Drew
Dodgers: Steve Finley, Jose Lima
Astros: Jeff Kent
Giants: Robb Nen
Royals: Juan Gonzales
Phillies: Kevin Millwood, Eric Milton
Reds: Barry Larkin

Well, there you have it. I'm sure I've left something (or rather someone) out. It's hard to make too many generalizations at this point. It does however look like a lot of teams are desperate for pitching help. The mid-priced pitcher market seems to be very competitive with deals for guys like Benson, Wright, and Lieber going at the upper end of the range. It will be interesting to see if it compresses or expands the market at the upper end (Pavano & Pedro) and the lower end (Villone) of the pitchers market. My guess is that it will expand the low end (as it already seems to be doing) and compress the upper end.

Villone offered Arbitration

2004-12-07T23:17:00.000-08:00

This just in ... the Mariners have offered Ron Villone arbitration prior to tonight's deadline. According to the Associated Press report, Bavasi indicated that the differences came to money and not deal length. Which is odd given that the previous reports indicated that Villone was interested in a multi-year deal and the Mariners were offering 1 year with a club option for the second year. Villone has until December 19th to accept or decline the arbitration offer.

Interesting the AP report says the the Mariners have "about $22 million to spend." Take that Bob Finnigan.

Pavano's Visit

2004-12-07T22:16:00.000-08:00

Tonight Carl Pavano's Seattle visit is winding down. I was wondering if someone was going to report seeing him throwing some salmon at Pike Place Fish. So far ... haven't heard anything. Perhaps the pouring rain deterred him. Well, he wanted to know what Seattle was like. It's better in the summer Carl.

I do find it interesting that news reports have the old guard Lincoln/Armstrong/Pelekoudas taking the lead in Pavano's visit. Bavasi and Hargrove were at their homes in California and Ohio respectively ... evidently both had better things to do.

Reports in the local media put long odds on a Pavano signing with more "realistic" interest in Jaret Wright. Tonight however the San Francisco Chronicle and Fox News are reporting the Wright is close to signing with the Yankees for 3 years and $20-21M. The Yankee deal trumps the Mariners offer reported at 3 years/$9M (initially reported at 3 years/$15M).

Looks like the Mariners are either going to have to get serious about Pavano or move on to others ... Matt Clement anyone? With Wright's new deal, you have to wonder what the market will be for the top names.

Mariners re-sign Wilson to 1 year deal

2004-12-07T15:11:00.000-08:00

This afternoon the Mariners announced that they re-signed Dan Wilson to a one year deal. Financial terms were not disclosed, but I assume they will come out in forthcoming news reports.

Update: Wilson will be paid $1.75M according to several published reports. A little more than I would have liked to see, but it's not a bad deal.

From the press release:

"Bringing Dan back was important to us," said Bavasi. "His veteran leadership and the way he handles the pitching staff are integral parts of our ballclub, and he did a great job working with Olivo last season."

"I am glad we got this worked out to remain in Seattle for another season," said Wilson. "This is where my family and I have called home for the last 11 years and I am looking forward to helping return the club to the level of success we've become accustomed to on the field."

Complete details can be found here.

This is good news. Having Wilson back will be good stabilizing influence with Olivo taking the majority of the starts. The one-year deal is appropriate and it's good that the Ms didn't get caught up in the seemingly rising catchers market (see Damian Miller's deal).

One down. So far no word on whether Ron Villone will be given arbitration. It will be interesting to see how things play out with Villone, since he's one of Scott Boras' (lesser) clients. Might give some insight into Mariners-Boras relations ... now that Carlos Beltran has named the Mariners as an interested team.

Crop of New Rumors

2004-12-01T16:47:00.000-08:00

A few days away from the Hot Stove and there are a new crop of rumors. So in no particular order:

The latest Bob Finnigan bomb is that the Mariners have tendered a 3 year, $15M deal to Jaret Wright. Wright worked with the geniuses in the Braves organization to resurrect his career after years of arm trouble. I like Wright (although he's not my top choice), but I don't like this deal. It's excessive for a pitcher with some question marks. Also, one wonders whether Hargrove is an asset or a detriment with Wright. After all, it could be argued that Hargrove was at the helm when Wright suffered injury. How Wright feels about playing under Hargrove again is interesting.

The timing of the news about the Wright deal is interesting with the Carlpalooza tour coming to Seattle next week. Pavano is still scheduled to be in town from Dec 7 to 8th. If published reports about the budget and predictions on priorities (2 mashers & a #1 or 2 starter) are correct ... then it's either Wright or Pavano (for more $) and certainly not both. So I wonder what Pavano will be thinking coming to town. Maybe the Gulfstream G550 has already been chartered for the trip to Seattle and there's no refund ...

Of course, last week's Finnigan bomb that the Mariners are going after both Carlos Delgado and Richie Sexson is still out there. And appearing as a reference in USA Today and other media outlets. So far only the Tacoma News Tribune published an article partially disputing the report. Among other things, the TNT article "Ms bidding for big hitters" states:

the Mariners have offers outstanding to 6 players ... not named. I would surmise them to be Dan Wilson, Ron Villone, Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, Richie Sexson and Jaret Wright.
the Mariners believe that their chances of signing Pavano are slim and that Wright is a more realistic target
landing Delgado and Glaus is “Plan A".
Signing both Delgado and Sexson and moving Sexon to LF is not the clubs' or Sexson's preference. Furthermore signing Sexson is "more of a longshot" because he has already has more lucrative deals both in term (4 years from the D'Backs) and in money ($10M from the Mets) than the Ms are expected to offer.

The TNT doesn't completely dismiss Finnigan's Delgado-Sexson report, but marks it as a "longshot". Interesting choice of words since you usually reserve "longshot" for things you want to happen as opposed to things you don't ... anyway. Anyway, the TNT analysis of the off-season plans seem a bit more believable. I would not be surprised if the Mariners weren't doing something very close to this.

So far no news on what Dan Wilson has said to the Mariners contract offer (believed to be a 1 or 2 year deal at $1M). Seems like that may be bad news in locking him up as Olivo's backup. It has been reported that Wilson wants a starting job, but so far he has attracted interest only in a backup role. Nevertheless, Damian Miller's 3 year, $8.75M deal with the Brewers, may have raised the market on mid-30s catchers. Everyone loves Wilson, but the Mariners should not get swept up into overpaying to keep him. Dan should be offered no more than 2 years at $1M per. Anything more is foolish.

Out of Denver (you should be feeling the cold Cirillo wind blowing), there is a report that the Mariners might be interested in Jeromy Burnitz. Yikes. Yet another rumor that I hope is false. Burnitz had respectable numbers last season, .283/37 HR/ 110 RBI ... but he plays for the Rockies! Consider his numbers at Coors field, .322, 24 HR, 68 HR. You think those numbers are going to drop at Safeco? Sure as a Jeff Cirillo ground out they will. Someone remind Bill & Howard about Cirillo? Please?

Finally, for all of you Armando Benitez fans out there ... the SF Giants have signed him for 3 years, $21M. Unbelievable. Benitez is probably best remembered by Mariners fans as the result of Lincoln & Gillick getting rid of Jeff Nelson their most vocal clubhouse critic in 2003. The swap netted Benitez at the time a troublemaker in his own right. One good season later ... and a spare part becomes a $7M/yr man. After eating 2 years of Robb Nen's deal you'd think the Giants would learn their closer lesson. This makes Eddie at $4.5M look cheap ... I hope he pitches ...

Two First Basemen Aren't Better than One

2004-11-27T10:57:00.000-08:00

As a Mariner fan, it's hard not be frustred sometimes. From the Seattle Times, the Mariners are evidently trying to sign two over-30 first basemen to multi-year deals. This is a terrible plan ... wrong on just so many levels.

I couldn't agree more with the USS Mariner:

Signing Delgado and Sexson, then calling it an offseason, would just about cement the M’s status as the worst team in the AL West for 2005 and 2006.

Well said.

From nearly the start of the failed 2004 season, many Mariner fans realized that the team could not compete and looked ahead to the off-season. To the opportunity of perhaps signing the future cornerstones of the Mariners. Young, talented and rising stars like Carlos Beltran and Adrian Beltre would be on the market. The Mariners looked like they might have the "financial flexibility" to make some bold moves ... Howard Lincon's letter said as much. There was a lot to be hopeful about.

Now here we are a couple of weeks into the off-season and then things have changed. The "financial flexibility" has nearly disappeared ... the reported available budget of $13-$16M is about half (or less) than many estimated. The market for young stars appears to be fast on the rise fueled by historic NLCS performance by Beltran and an improbable BoSox victory. And news reports are about the possibility of signing the likes of Sexson, Delgado and Koskie.

It's hard to have a lot of hope now ...

Thanks & Turkeys

2004-11-25T13:47:00.000-08:00

As millions of Americans get together with friends and family to give thanks and dissect turkey, it's a good idea as Mariner fans to do the same.

Couple of things to be thankful for:

Ichiro breaking George Sisler's record. Witnessing that hit in person was perhaps the only redeeming moment of an otherwise forgettable season.
Edgar. A great player and a better man. Best wishes 'Gar.

There are too many turkeys to name ... and, well, why spoil the mood? Who are you thankful for and who are the turkeys?

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

Niehaus, Polls, Mailbags

2004-11-22T22:05:00.000-08:00

At the risk of sounding like the Mariners' marketing department. If you have a spare moment, vote for Dave Niehaus to be inducted into the broadcaster's portion of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Dave has been the Mariners announcer since the team's inception and I think he's worthy of this recognition. Voting for the Ford C. Frick Award occurs here. By the way, I don't recommend voting for Rick Rizz or Ron Fairly.
Could the Mariners be gauging public interest with their website? On the official Mariners' site, you will find their latest poll: "Which free agent is the most enticing?" The choices are Carlos Delgado, Derek Lowe, Troy Glaus, and Corey Koskie. Unfortunately they did not include a "none of the above" option ... which I would have readily chosen. Instead, I just hit "Submit" with no vote to see the results. Of the approximately 2600 votes so far, it's 69% Delgado, 13% Lowe, 13% Glaus, and unbelievably 5% Koskie.
Jim Street has another Useless Mailbag. I repeat my criticism of this feature. It just amazes me how clueless the questions are. There's one that asserts that the Ms don't need Sammy Sosa because "our outfield is set with Ibanez, Winn, and Ichiro" and "do you think Scott Spiezio will be at first or third?" And this winner, "I was wondering if the Mariners would look to retrieve (Ben) Davis as a replacement for Edgar Martinez at the DH spot and possible replacement for Dan Wilson at catcher." What?? Ben Davis back?? Even Jim Street couldn't craft a "politically correct" Mariners response to that.

Mariners show interest in Mike Redmond

2004-11-22T16:19:00.000-08:00

According to the Miami Herald, the Mariners are one of eight teams that have expressed interest in Marlins veteran free-agent catcher Mike Redmond. Redmond is a career .284 BA / .710 OPS guy, so he's not going to knock anyone's socks off. He could be a capable backup plan or cheaper alternative to resigning Dan Wilson. Still, it is believed that Redmond could command perhaps as much as a a 2-year deal at $1M per which is an increase over the $840,000 he made last season. Redmond was born in Seattle (of course), so it shouldn't surprise anyone that the Mariners are interested. Another angle is that perhaps Redmond would be an enticement in the pursuit of Carl Pavano.

In other news, the Boston Dirt Dogs and Boston Globe reports that Red Sox's Gabe Kapler has agreed to a 1 year, $2M deal with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan. The report says that he wanted a guarantee to play at this point in his career. Seems like reasonable to me. I would have thought Kapler could have found a full-time role in the MLB ... perhaps with a smaller market team.

Mariners Make Wilson an Offer

2004-11-22T01:15:00.000-08:00

According to Saturday's Everett Herald, the Mariners have presented Dan Wilson with a contract offer. "We've made an offer and he's mulling it," Bavasi said of Wilson. The Mariners are widely expected to offer Wilson a short-deal (perhaps 1 year) where he would back-up and support the development of Miguel Olivo. The White Sox are rumored to have some interest in Wilson which may drive up his price.

The Herald article also reports that the Mariners are making additional offers. "We're in the process of making two more offers," Bavasi said. "The number will jump in the next two or three days." The additional offers could include deals to Ron Villone and/or Jolbert Cabrera (the Mariners have until 12/7 to exercise his option or allow him to go to arbitration). Of course, it's has been widely reported that Corey Koskie is expecting to receive an offer from the Ms. I'll repeat that I really hope that rumor is false.

The Herald quotes Bavasi: "I can't read the market. It depends on who you're talking to. Someone in baseball on the club side will tell you the market is coming back again because the only players who signed are players afraid to stay out there too long."

There's definitely a fair bit of confusion among both clubs and agents regarding the direction of the market. Are we seeing a continuation of the decline seen the past few years or is the market poised for a rebound? Until some key deals land and set the tone of the market, there's going to be a lot of staring at one another until someone blinks.

With the Thanksgiving holiday fast approaching expect the staring to continue .... for a while. In fact, we'll continue to see a trickle of news and rumors until well after the Winter Meetings are held in Anaheim from December 10-13.

Round-up of News:
* Cubs, Glendon Rusch agree to a 2-year, $5M deal
* Mets, Kris Benson agree in principle to a 3-year, $22M deal with a $7.5M fourth year option
* Tigers, Troy Percival agree to a 2-year, $12M deal

Round-up of Rumors:
* Pedro Martinez wants a 4 year, $60M deal from the Yankees
* Jon Leiber has been offered a 1 year, $4M deal + $2-3M incentive clauses by the Marlins
* Tigers and Giants have interest in Steve Finley

Bocachica Signs with As

2004-11-21T01:15:00.000-08:00

Take heart "Bocachica backers", your favorite outfielder signed a minor league contract with the Oakland As. Hiram's also been invited to Spring Training. At this point, he's not projected to make the 25 man roster and will probably begin the season a Sacramento RiverCat.

Billy Beane has a knack for uncovering "diamonds in the rough", so it does makes me curious what he might be seeing in the long-time minor leaguer. Could Bocachica be Oakland's 2005 version of Marco Scutaro? Probably not. But you never know down there. Good luck, Hiram.

"Nationals" to be Expos new name

2004-11-19T17:56:00.000-08:00

According to the Associated Press, the Expos will be renamed the Nationals. According to the article, the options were the Nationals, Senators, or Grays. Evidently, DC's Major objected to the Senators because DC does not have representation in the Senate. He preferred the Grays, as a tribute the Negro Leagues, Homestead Grays. But the Grays real home however was Pittsburgh. The "Nationals" was the compromise. And it sounds like a compromise all right.

At this early stage of the Free Agent market, the ~~Expos~~ Nationals have been the one team making any real noise. The Nationals added Cristian Guzman ($16.8M/4 year) and Vinny Castilla ($6.2M/2 year) in deals that have been widely criticized. And today they completed a trade with the Angels for Jose Guillen.

I have to say it's rather odd that a franchise with no owner, no budget and no fans (yet) is operating this way. If the team were signing deals pushing the market down, I'd be all over a potential abuse of MLB's owners monopoly powers. But the Nationals are pushing the market up. It really makes no sense.

It's Boras Time

2004-11-12T11:50:00.000-08:00

Beginning today, franchises are allowed to make offers and negotiate with free agents. It's going to be interesting to see if 2004 is another "down year" for money and deal length or if this year is the return of frenzied bidding (real or imagined) for top players. Here are a few articles discussing the action of the season ... none too informative, but worth checking out if you are an armchair-GM junkie:

John McGrath's column in the Tacoma News Tribune
Larry Stone's report in the Seattle Times
David Andriesen article in the Seattle PI

Bavasi Disputes Sexson Report

2004-11-10T15:12:00.000-08:00

In today's P-I, GM Bill Bavasi denied the Sexson to Mariners rumor saying "Not even close to true ... Completely wrong." Of course, this is as meaningless as the initial report but there it is.

In other ~~news~~ rumors, the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports (scroll down) the Mariners are one of eight teams expressing "direct" (as opposed to "indirect") interest in Corey Koskie. A 31 year old, lifetime .280 hitter, who gets a hit about as often as he strikes out and wants $15M over 3 years. Yeah that's what we need. I can only hope that this one isn't true either.

The Chicago Tribune reports (scroll down) that the White Sox may be interested in Dan Wilson. Looks like Ben Davis wasn't the answer there or perhaps Freddy just misses his old backstop. If it's true, the price to resign him may have gone up a little.

Baylor - Ms Hitting Coach

2004-11-09T15:56:00.000-08:00

According to a report by Tacoma News-Tribune's Larry Larue, the Mariners have asked Don Baylor to be the batting coach. Scan down ... I'm not sure why it's so buried in there. Baylor was considered by both the Mariners and the Philles for open manager positions. The former Rockies and Cubs manager was the Mets batting coach last season, but was not considered to replace Art Howe.

Update (5:00pm): Baylor has accepted the Mariners offer and will become the hitting coach. I like this hire a lot.

Sexson Rumors and NW Connections

2004-11-09T14:38:00.000-08:00

Today's hot stove buzz centers on a report that the Mariners have all but sealed up a deal with Richie Sexson. It goes on to say that the sides are in agreement, but the team won't announce until later to avoid having to give up a draft pick. It's been widely speculated that the Ms will target Sexson, however I find this story hard to believe.

First, teams aren't allowed to talk terms with free agents until the 11th and purposely avoiding a draft pick payment would surely be against some rule. Certainly bending the rules goes on, but this kind of chicanery doesn't sound like the Mariners front office. Second, in a recent (11/5) interview with the Portland Tribune, Sexson says:

“I want to go to a team that can win now, more than anything.” ...

Seattle, “is an option. It’s near my hometown. Once again, it comes to winning. They have a chance to get back to being a good team. It always gets down to pitching. If they add a couple of starters, get some bullpen help and a good bat, they could be back in the thick of things.” ...

Would Sexson be interested in the Yankees? ... “George (Steinbrenner) is a great owner. He would pretty much buy you a (championship) ring if you go there. That’s what it’s all about. Sure, I would love to play there.”

Doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement for the Mariners to me. Incidentally, I find his statements ("a team that can win now", "if they add ... a good bat") to be just a little irritating. Richie, I hope your referring to yourself, because you would be that "good bat"! That last quote is reminiscent of Gary Payton and Karl Malone taking pay cuts to go to the Lakers to "win a championship". Earth to overpaid athletes ... you have win championships, they don't give 'em to you.

Anyway if the report is accurate, then my response is that signing Sexson would be an enormous mistake. The guys at USS Mariner have done a fine job of breaking down Sexson - I agree with them completely. Check it out here.

The Mariners apparent fascination with Northwest connected players is confounding. It's a long history that includes Jeff Cirillo (married to Seattle native), John Olerud (Seattle/WSU), Willie Bloomquist (Port Orchard), Matt Tuiasosopo (Bothell), Bucky Jacobsen (Hermiston, OR) and now potentially Richie Sexson (Vancouver, WA). Is someone pushing this? Is it a conscious plan? Will only locally connected players consider the Mariners?

If it's a conscious plan to appeal to the fan base, then it's horribly misguided. I've never once heard someone say "Ibanez hit a nice homer, but too bad he's not from around here" or on the flip side "Bloomquist struck out again, but at least he's from Port Orchard". No one cares that Edgar is Puerto Rican or that Ichiro is Japanese. Of course not ... this is Seattle! They're universally loved for playing hard and striving for excellence. That's the criteria that should be used.

Useless Mailbags

2004-11-08T15:15:00.000-08:00

The official Mariners website published yet another "Mailbag" feature by Jim Street this weekend. I've concluded that the Mailbag is complete waste of time, so I'll save you by not linking to it.

The questions included such zingers as ... why didn't the Mariners pick up Eddie's option for the full $6M, an argument for not trading "crucial" players like Randy Winn, stadium naming, and where to get tape of the 1995 playoff run (talk about living in the past). Seriously, are we to believe that these the best questions that Jim Street received? I don't think so. These are the safe questions to answer.

What's worse than the questions are the answers. Street ranges from factually incorrect ("Ichiro played his entire career in right" ... he actually won a Gold Glove for his play in center field for Orix in 1994), to blatantly party-line ("Johnson, Griffey and Rodriguez -- wanted to leave the Mariners, so blame them and not the organization for their departure"), to overly hopefully ("there is no reason to think ... Spiezio won't bounce back from poor ... 2004"), to truly unrealistic ("if the Mariners players had performed up to their capabilities in 2004, the team probably would have contended for the AL West title").

My advice ... don't bother.

Monday Media

2004-11-08T13:46:00.000-08:00

Tacoma News-Tribune's Larry LaRue has an interview with Bill Bavasi today. Bavasi doesn't reveal anything, but it's worth a read if you have a spare moment. The topics:

Refuses to discuss payroll, FA budget, or trades
Talks about last season's deals saying the Ms were trying to "get by" with Aurilia.
Names Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez, Kevin Millwood, Russ Ortiz as the type of #1 pitcher that the Ms plan to target. (He didn't specifically name these players as targets.)
Projects Lopez, Reed, Bucky with roles; Sherrill, Putz, Madritsch on the pitching staff.

The Everett Herald has an even thinner story with just a few quotes from Lee Pelekoudas.

Both Bavasi and Pelekoudas say Jeremy Reed demonstrated a lot. Despite only playing for 18 games, his .397 average and centerfield play against charging AL West competition made an impression on the brass.

What might this mean for FA signings? If (and it's a big if) the Mariners believe Reed is the CF, then it's quite possible the Mariners deal a very tradeable Winn for either 1B, 3B, LF, or pitching. It makes some degree of sense, with limited CF FA options, with big name like Beltran effectively out of the price range, and some decent FA options at more affordable prices available at the corners.

In case you are still watching the chase for Carlos Beltran, add the Angels to the list of interested teams. According to both the Houston Chronicle and the Chicago Tribune, the Angels are expected to bid for Beltran. The Chronicle story even goes so far as to say the Angels are the front runners and the Yankees are simply the bidding horse. The Angels will have cleared payroll with FA's Glaus/Percival and possibly moving troublemaker Jose Guillen. It goes without saying ... but should the Angels succeed in picking up Beltran, it will be another PR disaster for the Mariners. Seeing a division rival sign the premier FA two years in a row will be just a little maddening for Ms fans (myself included).

Round-up

2004-11-05T13:01:00.000-08:00

1. The Diamondbacks hired Bob Melvin today after firing Wally Backman for incidents in his past. Backman was fired after just 4 days with the team when the Arizona media revealed that Wally had prior brushes with the law. Evidently, the D-Backs didn't do a background check that could have easily been done on Google. Anyway, Congratulations Bob. He's going into a rough situation, but hopefully he finds his stride over there.

2. The coaching staff continues to flesh out. Jim Slaton was named Bullpen Coach joining Bryan Price (pitching) and Ron Hassey (bench). According to MLB.com, Frank White could be the 3rd base coach and either minor league managers Dan Rohn or Dave Brundage could be the 1st base coach.

3. Reports from an interview with Scott Boras reportedly have Beltran asking for a 10-year deal. Any dreamers out there hoping for the Ms to sign him, can now officially cross him off your list. One can only wonder what the Beltre market will demand.

4. FoxSports' Ken Rosenthal has his 2005 "Power Poll" out. He has the Mariners ranked #24 with the comment: "More than money is required to fix this mess." Nice.

5. Also from FoxSports, Carlos Delgado is fielding interest from the Orioles and (as widely expected) the Mariners. I like Delgado (as a player ... Anthem business aside) but we should have nothing to do with 32 year olds who played their whole career on AstroTurf/Concrete. Ken Griffey, anyone? Have the Ms learned nothing? Thankfully, he's reportedly more interested in the Orioles because he likes the hitters park and wants chance to go to the playoffs. Uh ... on an AL East team not named Yankees or RedSox ... yeah ... good logic there.

Mariners should (and did) decline Guardado's Club Option

2004-11-01T16:28:00.000-08:00

Mariners have until Wednesday to decide whether to exercise a club option to retain Eddie Guardado for $6M in 2005. The team should waste no time declining their option ... and perhaps even start praying that he signs on somewhere else.

Update 6:04 pm: No sooner than this was posted ... the Mariners have indeed declined Guardado's club option. He now has until November 10th to accept his player option.
Story here.

According to the MLB.com story should the Mariners decline the club option, Everyday Eddie would have 7 days as a free agent. It's been speculated that he may be a potential target of the Giants (Eddie's hometown club), Indians, and/or Cubs. If Eddie fails to sign on with another team, then he could exercise his player option to stay with the Mariners for his 2004 salary of $4M. It's unclear from the story, if Eddie must take the player option after the seven day free agency or if he can decline it and become a full free agent.

Everyday Eddie is a terrific personality, a good guy, and a very productive player when he’s healthy. But an expensive top-tier closer is a luxury ... the final piece of well-built team ... think Keith Foulke. Eddie should not the first piece for a club trying to reverse it’s fortunes.

Update #2 - 11/2 - 8:30 am: Both the Times & PI stories report the Mariners & Guardado are mutually interested in having Eddie pick-up his player option. Eddie rates his interest in returning at a "7" out of 10 and a deal may be worked out where he won't test FA waters at all. The PI reports Eddie's option is for $4.5M, Times reports it at $4M. There you go ... 70% chance Eddie will return.

$13 Million Won't Cut it

2004-10-31T01:39:00.000-08:00

The Mariners are caught in a "number crunch" according to the Seattle Times's Bob Finnigan. He speculates that the Yankees will go big in free agency to fix everything that failed them - starting pitching, first base, and nobody named Carlos. Finnigan goes on to estimate what the Mariners will have to spend in the Free Agent Market. Subtracting current & projected player salaries from the budget, he puts the number at $13 Million. I guess it's a good thing they are increasing the budget from $87M to $94M (projected). Otherwise, the free agent budget would only be $6M!

Finnigan's numbers are a bit off and trades can change the landscape some (which the article does point out), but this "Mariners Math" is still infuriating. It brings up bitter reminders of the $8M (or whatever it was) supposed "Kaz windfall". At the time, it was dreamed that maybe this could be money for that coveted trade deadline deal. Eventually it turned into Ron Villone, "contingencies" and "money that can't be carried forward."

Someone tell Howard Lincoln that $13M is not "financial flexibility". $13M isn't going to get someone that will excite the fan base. Particularly since it has to be spread around to 4 players. Nope, if it really is $13M it's going to add up to disappointing signings, disappointed fans, unsold tickets, and empty seats.

$13M is disappointing in it's own right. But the Mariners apparent habit of misrepresentation to fans is appalling. If the Ms fail to make a big media splash sign with a cornerstone free agent signing this off-season, they will pay a heavy price with the fan base .... and learn a costly lesson in the value of credibility.

Tidbits for the Weekend

2004-10-29T23:45:00.000-07:00

For your reading pleasure:

1. Old news by this evening ... Mike Hargrove hired Ron Hassey to be the Mariners bench coach. Other than what's in the article I don't know too much more about him. This was interesting:

"I'm the only player in history to play 10 years and never get an extra-base hit
in the old ballpark (Kingdome)," (Hassey) said. "They put that up on the scoreboard
once during a game. That's hard to do. I hit a couple of balls off the wall that
bounced right back to the outfielder and I had to stay at first."

Hopefully, that bad luck is limited to the Kingdome and doesn't rub off on the players. Hargrove said:

"The most important thing is that (Hassey) is a good baseball man,"
Hargrove said. "I think as evidenced by the hiring of Bryan Price instead of
(friend and former colleague) Mark Wiley, it shows we're looking for good people
more than just friends."

There's that term "good baseball man" again. Announcing that last year's Ms bench coach Rene Lacheman would join Oakland as bench coach, Ken Macha called Lacheman an "oustanding baseball man" (quote at bottom). What the heck does "good baseball man" mean? Evidently we had an "oustanding" one (according Macha), we fired him, and we got a "good" one (according to Hargrove). Meaningless quotes ... gotta love 'em.

2. Ron Villone has filed for Free Agency. I liked the versatility Ron added to the staff. If the Mariners could sign him for cheap, I wouldn't mind too much. Incidentally, Edgar had to file for Free Agency ... a technicality.

3. In the wake of the Red Sox victory, ESPN's Page 2 is running a fun article on the remaining "curses" sports (not limited to baseball). They even used some of the same criteria that I did in Tuesday's "Cursed with Futility" post:

"We used the following criteria: To officially be cursed, a franchise cannot have
won a championship in the last 25 years (hey, that's the ESPN era), and the
franchise must have been in existence for all 25 years (you've been spared,
Timberwolves)."

So I'm feeling pretty good about my methodology! :) According to the article, the Cubs are #1 & White Sox are #2 most cursed teams. Just where I rated them. Plus, I loved what they said about the Cubs, "Curse of the Billy Goat: At least their fans are far less whiny and self-loathing than Red Sox Nation." In case you're wondering, the Ms ranked #26 below the Seahawks at #16. The Hawks were more cursed than the Ms? I don't know about that one. By the way ESPN, there's nothing funny about the Slocumb trade.

Congratulations Boston Red Sox

2004-10-27T20:56:00.000-07:00

New England is celebrating. The Curse (if it indeed ever existed) is now over. Some amazing performances from Schilling (with his red sock) to Lowe to Manny to Ortiz and on. Players who will no doubt will be remembered for generations to come. Enjoy it!

Historic Night Ahead?

2004-10-27T16:20:00.000-07:00

Game 4 of the World Series begins just about 1 hour from now. It just might be a historic night in baseball. With all the momentum, the end of the Red Sox drought could happen this evening. Even the heavens seem ready as a lunar eclipse will occur during the game and the sky will burn red. A World Series win, a sweep ... 86 years in the making. Perhaps the only thing missing is that it's not happening at Fenway. That would have been the movie ending. But, no matter, I don't think anyone will care too much. Set your VCRs.

Mariners News: Reported in the Seattle PI today, Bryan Price will continue as Mariners' pitching coach under Mike Hargrove. Overall, I think Price staying around is fine, but I would also have been fine if Hargrove brought in Mark Wiley. Perhaps a little continuity is a good thing.

Cursed with Futility

2004-10-26T20:19:00.000-07:00

With the Boston Red Sox holding a 2-0 (soon to be 3-0) advantage in the World Series and on the cusp of reversing "the Curse", I thought it would be fun to put the spotlight on baseball futility. We all have heard about Boston's "Curse", but really who really can consider themselves cursed with baseball futility?

To determine this we need to define futility. As any good Red Sox fan will tell you, it means failing to win a World Series. Winning the league pennant and getting there isn't enough. It also means failing over a long period of time. 86 years is a long time. We also need to define the perspective -- is it the franchise or the town? In the last 100 years of recorded baseball history franchises have moved around. But curses and futility is about the town, so that's important. We'll look at both the perspective of the franchise as well as the town. OK, let's narrow the field.

First, elminate any franchise or town that won at least one WS within the last 25 years. 25 years is a long time, but it's recent memory in baseball history. This eliminates the following 17 franchises (years since last WS win): Marlins (1), Angels (2), Diamondbacks (3), Yankees (4), Braves (9), Blue Jays (11), Twins (13), Reds (14), As (15), Dodgers (16), Mets (18), Royals (19), Tigers (20), Orioles (21), Cardinals (22), Phillies (24), and Pirates (25). There are some franchises I feel bad for (particularly at the end of the list), but we have to start somewhere. Besides another year or two of futility and they'll be off the list.

Second, eliminate franchises & towns with less than 25 seasons of history even if they haven't won a WS. This eliminates 2 additional franchises (number of seasons): the Devil Rays (7) and the Rockies (12) . Sorry, but you need at least 25 seasons under your belt. The Diamondbacks (7) and Marlins (12) would have been eliminated here too. Those lucky people. We also eliminate the Expos, because the franchise is moving this off-season. Although, certainly Montreal fans would have qualified suffering 1 post-season appearance in 36 seasons.

This leaves us with just 10 franchises. 5 are previous winners (Giants, Indians, Red Sox, White Sox, and Cubs) each with more than 100 years of history. 5 have never won (Mariners, Brewers, Padres, Astros, and Rangers) and are expansion franchises of the 1960s/70s. Here are the Top 10 in 3 groups:

The Frustrated Group

Texas (Dallas). The Rangers (1972 - 2004) have 3 playoff appearances and 0 pennants. To add to this they had no playoff appearances in 10 seasons in Washington. Overall that's about one playoff appearance every 15 years.
Houston. The Astros (1962 - 2004) have 7 playoff appearances and 0 pennants. Similar story to Texas, but they've had more chances.
Seattle. The Mariners (1977 - 2004) have 4 playoff appearances and 0 pennants. Seattle also had the Pilots (1969) who became the Brewers. Same story as Houston but the relatively short history keeps Seattle from being higher in this group.
San Diego. The Padres (1969 - 2004) have 3 playoff appearances and 2 pennants. The two WS appearances are something the others only dream about at this point.

The Tortured Group

Boston. The Red Sox (1907 - 2004) have 4 world championships and 8 pennants in 14 playoff appearances. 1918, yeah we know this story too well. They're about to come off this list.
Cleveland. The Indians (1915 - 2004) have 2 world championships, 5 pennants, and 9 playoff appearances. They appeared in the WS twice in the 1990s (under new Mariners' manager Mike Hargrove), but their last WS win was in 1948.
San Francisco. The Giants (1958 - 2004) have 3 pennants in 8 playoff appearances. They last appeared in the WS in 2002. The Giants last won as the New York Giants in 1954.
Milwaukee. The Brewers (1970 - 2004) have 2 playoff appearances and 1 pennant. They have long history of recent futility and Milwaukee's last World Series win was when the Braves organization was in town back in 1957.

A League of Their Own

Chicago is quite simply in a league of it's own in regard to baseball futility. The Cubs (1903 - 2004) have 2 world championships, 10 pennants, and 14 playoff appearances, but have not won since 1908. The White Sox (1901 - 2004) have 2 world championships, 5 pennants, and 7 playoff appearances, but have not won since 1917. For comparison, both of those histories are longer than the Red Sox. A total of 183 seasons between the two of them without a World Series title. So whether you're North Side or South Side, Chicago has to be the land of baseball futility.

Edgar wins Roberto Clemente Award

2004-10-26T10:45:00.000-07:00

Congratulations to Edgar Martinez for winning MLB's 2004 Roberto Clemente Award. As reported by MLB.com, Seattle Times, and Seattle PI, Edgar will be presented with the award prior to tonight's Game 3 of the World Series. The Roberto Clemente Award recognizes "the player who best exemplifies the game of baseball, sportsmanship, community involvement and the individual's contribution to his team." Edgar follows Mariners Jamie Moyer (2003) and Harold Reynolds (1991) as a recipient of the Award.

Each off-season, you hear grumbling in the fan base that the Mariners sign players who represent fine citizenship more than fine baseball performance. I don't know if that's perception or reality, but I certainly understand the seniment. A pro athlete is an interesting role ... a public figure whose on-field performance achievements (and failures) are for all to see ... and a public figure whose on-field and off-field behavior and citizenry is also for all to witness. It's probably a good thing the rest of us don't have to live our lives so openly.

Advantage Red Sox

2004-10-24T23:16:00.000-07:00

What a reversal of fortune! Just last Sunday night, the Boston faithful were going to bed unsettled. Their beloved Red Sox had just been dealt a crushing 19-8 defeat to fall behind 0-3 games to the hated Yankees. And perhaps yet another off-season of discontent lie ahead.

Fast forward one week. With arguably the greatest comeback in the history of baseball behind them, the Boston Red Sox take a commanding 2-0 advantage in the World Series with them to St. Louis. Tonight the faithful might just be going to bed with visions of Championship Parades in their heads. Of course, long-time Sox fans aren't counting eggs until they're hatched or rather until the last out is recorded. There's too much painful history and memories.

But for the rest of us, a Red Sox victory seems almost certain. According to the Fox Broadcast, 48 teams have held 2-0 advantage in a World Series. 77% of the time (37 times out of the 48) that team has gone on to win the Series.

Certainly all is not lost for the Cardinals, but they are in a massive hole. Tuesday's game is as must-win as any elimination game. Lose and the Cards will be down 0-3. Of course, the only team ever to overcome 0-3 is in the other dugout. If fact, you could argue that *every* game from this point is a must-win. Drop 1 and they have to win out. Of course, drop 2 and it's all over.

2-0 ... adds up to a huge advantage for the Red Sox. A reversal of fortune indeed!

Cardinals & Red Sox Showdown

2004-10-23T10:40:00.000-07:00

Today's the day baseball fans have been waiting for all season. Whether your favorite team is in it or out of it (like mine sadly), all eyes are here now. There's only one baseball game on and it's Cards-Sox. The start of the World Series. This will be the 101st World Series according to official history. Have a look at WorldSeries.com from MLB, the history section has some interesting walks down memory lane. Between Wednesday and Sunday of next week a dry spell will be broken. Will it be a 17 year old one or 86 year old one?

Here's my view of the matchup from Seattle's cheapseats:

Starting Pitching. Wakefield, Schilling, Martinez, Lowe vs Williams, Morris, Marquis, Suppan. On paper the Sox starters are no match for the Cards rotation. The rub is that they are so beat-up right now with injuries to Curt and relief appearances. Yet they've proven against the Yanks that it doesn't matter. Advantage: Sox

Mid-Relief. This is something of a toss-up. With the Sox, you never know what Francona is going to do. I'm still scratching my head over Pedro appearing in game 7. The Cards have a solid bullpen, but King needs to get it together and Tavarez needs to take a sedative or two before going out there. Advantage: Sox

Closer. Foulke vs Isringhausen. Foulke worked a lot against the Yankees and he's looked just unhittable. Isringhausen has been solid, but the Astros got to him in Houston. That could prove deadly here. Advantage: Sox

Catcher: Varitek vs Matheny. Varitek is the heart of the Sox clubhouse, behind the plate he's an excellent backstop (just not for Wakefield's knuckleball), and he can be dangerous at the plate. Matheny is a great catcher, but don't expect too much offense from him. Advantage: Sox

First Base: Millar/Mienkiewicz/Ortiz vs Pujols. Should the Sox need to hold a lead in Boston, Mienkiewicz will replace Millar as he did in the ALCS. In St. Louis, to get Ortiz's bat to the plate, the Sox will have to put up with his weak defense. Boston's committee approach reveals a weakness ... the complete first baseman. Pujols is that man. Advantage: Cards

Second Base: Bellhorn/Reese vs Womack. Bellhorn was a no show early in the ALCS, so much so Sox fans turned on him chanting "Pokey, Pokey". Of course, he came up big in NY hitting key HRs. Womack is an excellent defender and can be speedy ... his recent backspasms are a concern. Advantage: Sox

Third Base: Mueller vs Rolen. Bill Mueller is a fine third baseman winning the AL Batting Crown in 2003. But as they say in politics, "Sir, you're not Scott Rolen". To be fair, Rolen struggled early in the NLDS, but he seems to have found his stroke knocking the game-winning homer in Game 7. Advantage: Cards

Short-stop: Cabrera vs. Renteria. Jolbert's litle brother Orlando was an excellent pickup enabling Sox fans everywhere to toss out their "Garciaparra" T-shirts. Beside's having a great first name, Renteria is defensive heart of the Cardinal infield and offensively he just seems to do what needs to be done. Tough one to call. Advantage: Cards

Left Field: Ramirez vs. Sanders. Manny's game is all at the plate (remember him throwing to his cut-off man CF Damon earlier this year ... what the?), yet he was something of a non-factor in the ALCS. Sanders is a World Series veteran winning with D'Backs and losing with the Giants and can be a threat at the plate. But Manny can win a game single-handedly. Advantage: Red Sox

Center Field: Damon vs. Edmonds. Damon looked confused at the plate early in the ALCS, but he looked like Edmonds hitting that GS in game 7. Damon needs to return to his normal role of getting on base and scoring runs. He's a fine defender, but Edmonds is better in that department. Advantage: Cards

Right Field: Nixon vs. Walker. Trot is a decent hitter, but his injuries have limited him defensively. Walker had a strong start to the NLCS, but cooled off at the plate. A terrific defender, but it seems like he's lost a step or two also having been injured. Still ... Advantage: Cards

Designated Hitter: Ortiz vs ?. David Ortiz (or Davis Arias as we knew him here) was Boston's hero in the ALCS. His powerful bat is something that must show up for Boston to be successful. Whoever the Cards plug in there for games 1 & 2 will be no match. Advantage: Sox

Bench. Dave Roberts is the main guy off the Boston bench along with the defensive replacements. St. Louis has some talent off the bench including So Taguchi and Marlon Anderson, but I don't expect them to have an impact like Roberts. Advantage: Sox

Manager. Francona vs LaRussa. Francona slipping into the hot seat left by the grilling Grady Little's rear got last year, demonstrated an ability to get his team over turmoil early in the season and over a 0-3 deficit. LaRussa the veteran has been in the WS three times, but not for 14 years. By a hair ... Advantage: Cards

Fans. This is probably going to get me in trouble. The RedSox faithful love their team and they will love the players that succeed. But they are also just as likely to turn on their players during the game for failing (see Bellhorn above). Much has been said about Cardinal fans being the "best fans" in baseball because of their knowledge of the game. In my experience having been to Busch, I've seen their fans appreciate the effort and performance from the Cardinals and the opponent. And I've never heard of them turning on their own. Advantage: Cards

Quick count gives 8 votes Sox to 7 votes Cards. Of course, this means nothing, but it's fun to go through. It seems this is going to be a closely matched series. I believe a short-series will favor the Cardinals since they have the middle 3 games at Busch. A long-series favors the Sox who will be tough to beat at Fenway in a potential game 6 & 7. It's going to be a good.

Around the Horn Today

2004-10-22T13:29:00.000-07:00

First Base: Congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals for capturing the 2004 NL Crown. It's really a shame the NLCS was overshadowed by this years' ALCS. There were amazing performances from Albert Pujols and Carlos Beltran that may very well be forgotten as history looks back in a few years. Cards-Sox is going to be a fun World Series.

Second Base: Lots of interesting fodder in Mariners blogosphere today:

The always excellent Leone for Third has a great piece today analyzing revenue versus payroll & payroll growth across Major League Baseball and the Mariners specifically. According to the analysis, the Mariners rank 3rd in revenue behind the Yankees and RedSox and yet 21st in spending that revenue on player payroll (52.7%). A truly sad situation
The also excellent and very active U.S.S. Mariner has an interesting discussion about the Mariners' new skipper. I'm somewhat familiar with Hargrove, but I've been doing some searching & reading up at Orioles and Indians sites to add a little more depth in my understanding of Hargrove's skills and tendancies in talent evaluation, in-game strategy and tactics, bench use, starter handling, bullpen utilization, clubhouse leadership, motivation, etc. What I've read supports the a lot what's written in the article. I hope to have a few moments to put together an in-depth summary.

As one of the newest members of the Mariners' blogosphere, there's a lot of terrific information being posted. You can link to some of these sites in the "linkroll" on the right or you can find more at baseballblogs.com. It's a great place to find more Mariners' blogs as well as blogs to other teams. They were nice enough to recently add me. Incidentally, there are more than twice as many Mariners blogs as any other AL West team and only Yankees, RedSox, Mets and Cubs have more listed blogs than the Mariners.

Third Base: The Yankees (or Tankees) collaspe remains at the top of the sports world a day later. I don't think the media knows how to handle this. I laughed at ESPN's Sportscenter when Chris Berman showed a retrospective of the 52 Sox-Yanks games over the last 2 years. The idea was to show the "great drama" provided by the teams, but it seemed like just an excuse to show some feel good Yankee moments. Then they followed up with a roster that George might try an assemble including Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran, Randy Johnson, and every other big name on the free agent market. I think they were trying to be funny or something. Speaking of not funny ... the story of the RedSox fan who died in the post-ALCS celebration is just so sad and tragic. I hope this is a lesson for Boston should the Sox win it all.

Home Plate: With the Astros out of it, the Carlos Beltran sweepstakes begins today. Will the Mariners have a ticket? Should they? Despite today's beginning, expect Beltran to be one of the last of the last off the "Hot Stove". I hope to put together some hot stove thoughts in coming days and weeks. Incidentally, it will be interesting to see what happens with Roger Clemens. I'm no Clemens' fan (although you have respect him immensely), but it was sad to see him go out the way he did ... as the game 7 loser. At 42, he's proven he can still compete, but will another disappointing exit have him throwing in the towel for good?

Appreciating a RedSox Triumph

2004-10-21T15:45:00.000-07:00

As a fan of baseball and sport (heck as simply a human), you can't help but appreciate the RedSox triumph over the Yankees in the ALCS. Down in the series 0-3, pounded 19-8 in game 3 the previous night, trailing 4-3 in the bottom of the 9th, the venerable Mariano Rivera on the mound ... the RedSox could not have been more dead in game 4. And yet, they did not die.

For the RedSox team to come back and win the series being literally moments from a humiliating defeat is just simply amazing. As one of the greatest comebacks in the history of sport, the 2004 ALCS is a series that will be replayed, written about and discussed for years to come. So, there are many angles to this story.

For me, it's not about "RedSox nation" prayers being answered. True Sox fans (the good ones) will tell you it's all about winning the World Series not the ALCS. It's also not about defeating "the Evil Empire". The Yankee's $184M payroll is #1 in MLB, but does the RedSox's $127M payroll (#2 in MLB) make them any less of an Empire (evil or otherwise)?

No ... to me, it's the heart, determination, and drive of those 25 guys. A testament to the "never say die" will of man (or men, in this case). The ability to do what others said was "impossible". The will to live for another day and desire to win. It's not something front offices, fans, or even managers can directly affect. It comes from within and it happens inside the lines. It's why sports can be so compelling. It's why we're sports fans. At least, why I am.

Whatever happens in the World Series ... I congratulate the RedSox's players.

Mike Hargrove named Mariners Manager

2004-10-20T09:38:00.000-07:00

The Mariners have selected Mike Hargrove as their new manager, according to the AP and Seattle Times. Reportedly the Mariners have signed Hargrove to a three-year deal through 2007 and financial terms are unknown at this time (and knowing the organization's culture we never know).

Kudos to Bavasi. First, Hargrove is a great hire as his credentials are second to none in the candidate field this year. Second, I'm impressed with the speed the Ms moved. It's been just 16 days since they anncounced Melvin's dismissal on Oct 4th. By contrast in 2002, it took them 31 days (Oct 15 to November 16) to hire Bob Melvin to succeed Lou Piniella.

Hargrove is an excellent manager who led the successful turn around of the Cleveland Indians. With a 40 year history of futility, the Indians were baseball's laughingstock. Remember the 1989 classic Major League? With GM John Hart, some talented players (Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, etc.) and a committed owner (Richard Jabobs), Hargrove turned that around.

I don't know about the other pieces yet ... but so far I like the Manager.

Side Note: I spent just about 6 months working on a project in Cleveland in 1998. And I remember going to "the Jake" and the pride the community felt about the Indians. Pretty similar to how people felt about the Mariners here in Seattle during the "Lou era". It would be nice to see some of that come back.

ARod slaps at Bronson Arroyo's Glove: Playing Hard or Playing Dirty

2004-10-19T20:36:00.000-07:00

During this evening's ALCS Game 6 in the 8th inning, as Alex Rodriguez runs down the first base line ... he purposely swipes at Bronson Arroyo's glove as Arroyo attempts to tag him out. The ball flew out of the glove and up the line allowing ARod to advance to second and Derek Jeter (who was on first base) to score. The play was subsequently reviewed by the umpires and overturned - correctly. As a result, the crowd began to rain balls down on the field (where did those come from?) and caused a minor distrubance. This ultimately delays the game and causes the roit police to be called in. As the game is still in progress, we'll see if anything further develops.

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays in tomorrow's press. Was this "playing hard" or "playing dirty"? I say playing dirty. It's reminicent of an incident between the Braves' Robert Fick and the Cubs' Eric Karros from the 2003 NLDS. Here's the story (courtesy of the Savannah Morning News):

Braves: Fick fined $25,000 for incident
By Bill Zack Savannah Morning News
ATLANTA — Atlanta Braves first baseman Robert Fick was clearly irritated with the $25,000 fine levied by Major League Baseball Sunday for his interference with Chicago Cubs first baseman Eric Karros in Saturday's game in the NLDS, but planned to apologize to Karros.

I wasn't trying to hurt him,'' said Fick, who grabbed Karros' glove as he ran down the line, injuring his shoulder. I was just trying to knock the ball out. It was like all a reaction. I play hard. It was an elimination game. It ended up looking a lot worse than it was.''

Fick was also fined by the Braves, but refused to disclose the amount. The first baseman, who was involved in several brawls while playing with the Tigers, was tabbed a punk'' by a WGN sportscaster Saturday night.
It's not something I'm proud of,'' Fick said of the latest incident. It happened and I guess I'll just have to deal with it. It came out a lot worse than I planned. I wasn't trying to hurt his arm or his shoulder.''

Fick didn't receive any support from his teammates Sunday. To a man, they distanced themselves from the play, which was described as dirty'' by one Brave. General manager John Schuerholz spoke to Cubs GM Jim Hendry and came away satisfied the two teams could put the incident behind them.

Update: From ESPN SportsCenter Special interview with Curt Schilling. Schilling called ARod's slap "bush league". He goes on to say that ARod could have "broken an arm" with the play and that is was "not unexpected". "You think you'd see Jeter make that play? No way. No way." He says that he respects the "true Yankees" naming Jeter, Posada, Matsui, and Torre.

Of course the morning after, there's no big outcry against Alex. The Fox coverage and the media were all over Fick last year. I guess a $25M salary and star status buys you a pass in the media.

Times: Down to Hargrove and Little

2004-10-19T08:56:00.000-07:00

According to Bob Finnigan in today's Seattle Times, the Mariners have narrowed their search to two. Grady Little and Mike Hargrove. Just yesterday I was wondering how Mike Hargrove seemed to be flying under the manager search radar. If Finnigan has his facts right, it looks like he's a finalist.

I'm heartened by these choices for a number of reasons:

Both are among this year's Tier 1 candidates. The Bob Melvin hiring in 2002 was in many ways indicative of the front office's arrogance that is getting so much press these days (from Theil, etc.). The Mariners never really considered the top available candidates (namely Dusty Baker) instead opting to look at Tier 2 and stretch candidates. Ultimately they choose Melvin because he interviewed well. The arrogance of the front office let them believe that the Mariners organization could carry a new manager. As we know, that proved not to be the case. This year it looks like the Ms aren't being too proud to ask for help.
Neither are "Pet Picks". Candidates like Joe Maddon, Lee Elia and Terry Collins are "pet picks". They are candidates seriously considered because of personal connections to the heads of the Mariners' organization. I don't like these picks becuase it represents a narrow field of view and further arrogance. Now, Joe Maddon from all accounts is a guy with potential as a big league manager. But Lee Elia? There's no potential there.
Both have winning histories. Hargrove and Little have deep experience at manager and success in guiding teams to the playoffs. It's been a while since Hargrove has been there, but those 5 straight division crowns with the 90s Indians are a proud accomplishment. I'm inclined to believe that his recent dark years in Baltimore had more to do with a messed-up Orioles front office. I'm not sure what that says about his ability to "manage up" to the messed-up Mariners' front office. Little was such a talented minor league manager (for the Braves) that he was named minor manager of the last 20 years of something. But, of course, Little will always be known for the "Pedro decision". Yet everything I read about the guy says that he's a great developer of young talent and a deft handler of veteran talent. And it's wearing on him as he was annoyed with being questioned about it by the Phillies. "It's a shame, but that's life," Little said (AP).

Larry Stone of the Times has a nice piece saying that Little and Hargrove have in much common. He writes:

Both are 54-year-old Texans with folksy manners and strong reputations as players' managers. They have traveled intertwining paths in their recent baseball lives. And both are lifers in the sport who, in their current positions as high-level advisers, still hunger to manage after getting fired within 28 days of each other following the 2003 season.

Perhaps what they share the most is the desire to reverse recent bad experiences after a history of positive achievement. Little wanting to reverse the "Pedro" moment after 20 years of success managing at the minor and major league levels. Hargrove looking to reverse 4 years of Orioles losing after 9 years of success with the Indians. In a lot of ways, they're a perfect fit for the Mariners -- looking to reverse a 99-loss season after history winning in the 90s.

If I were doing the choosing ... it would be Mike Hargrove. Primarily because he was a key part of making the Indians franchise into a perennial winner in the 90s. Of course, he had the help of talents like Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. But Cleveland also added pieces to the equation like Omar Vizquel, Robby Alomar, Sandy Alomar. I think given the right backing and some time he could build a long-term winner in Seattle.

Managerial Records

2004-10-18T15:48:00.000-07:00

Manager	Primary Team(s)	Games	Wins	Losses	%	Highlights
Grady Little	Red Sox	324	188	136	.580	Won AL Wild Card in 2003; Fateful Pedro decision
Jerry Manuel	White Sox	971	500	471	.515	Won AL Central in 2000; Lost ALDS to Mariners in 3 games
Lee Elia	Cubs, Phillies	539	238	300	.442	Last Managed in 1988; Teams never finished higher than 4th with one winning season
Don Baylor	Rockies, Cubs	1317	627	689	.476	Led Rockies to 95 NL Wildcard; Lost to Braves who won WS
Joe Maddon	Angels	51	27	24	.529	Interim Management Duties only
Mike Hargrove	Indians, Orioles	1961	996	963	.508	Won 5 AL Central Crowns; Won ALCS Twice, losing WS both times; Os finished 4th for 4 straight years
Terry Collins	Astros, Angels	907	463	444	.510	No Playoff Experience

Looking at these managerial records, Hargrove is certainly the most experienced and accomplished candidate. Baylor and Manuel are perhaps the next most qualified in terms of experience. Obviously numbers is not what the management search will tip on, but they are interesting to look at.

I do find it odd that Mike Hargrove isn't making more noise in the manager sweepstakes. Hargrove's trouble getting the Orioles back into contention in the AL East may be weighing on his prospects. I think that's a bit unfair considering the huge payrolls of the Yankees and Red Sox. One could argue that in 4 seasons, he could have finisihed ahead of Toronto is reasonable however. According to Cleveland's Plain-Dealer, the Indians have granted permission to the Mariners and the Phillies to speak with Buddy Bell (bench coach) and Hargrove (special advisor). It is interesting that you don't hear too much beyond that.

The search continues.

Today's Rumor Mill

2004-10-18T15:40:00.000-07:00

From Chicago Sun Times: "Former White Sox assistant general manager Dan Evans, who was fired as the Dodgers' GM at the beginning of this season, has been hired to assist Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi in finding a new manager. Among Evans' early recommendations: former White Sox manager Jerry Manuel. Former Cubs manager Lee Elia, manager Lou Piniella's bench coach and hitting instructor with the Devil Rays, also is being considered for the M's managerial job."

From the Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel: "The Mariners were so eager to talk with Little, General Manager Bill Bavasi flew in to Los Angeles to see him the day before Little was to be in Philadelphia. With Charlie Manuel's history of health problems, there's a growing sentiment in Philadelphia to have him as the hitting or bench coach and Little as the manager."

Manager Update

2004-10-16T16:19:00.000-07:00

Here's a little analysis on the Manager search update stories that appearred in today's Times and PI:

Article	Seattle PI: Mariners GM 'in middle' of interviews (10/15)	Seattle Times: M's moving fast to hire manager (10/16)
Grady Little	Listed as other possible candidate	Little reportedly met with Mariners officials Tuesday in Los Angeles, a dinner date that by all accounts left good impressions all around.
Don Baylor	Baylor had contact with the Mariners and expected a return call. But as of Friday, it had not come. "We don't have a date or a time set (for an interview)," Baylor said yesterday from Austin, Texas. "My representative has talked to them, and they told him that they'd be in touch by the end of the week." Bavasi confirmed that he had not talked to Baylor. "But just because we haven't yet doesn't mean we won't," he said.	The Mariners ... also are setting up meetings, or seeking permission to do so, with Don Baylor ...
Joe Maddon	Bavasi is in the process of asking Anaheim GM Bill Stoneman for permission to talk with Angels bench coach Joe Maddon. "I haven't had any conversations with Bill (Bavasi)," Maddon said. "I think he and Bill (Stoneman) are playing phone tag. I think the Mariners are asking for permission to talk to me."	Seattle club officials also interviewed Joe Maddon, Anaheim's bench coach, but a source said they prefer someone with managerial experience in the major leagues.
Art Howe	Howe ... expressed disappointment over not being contacted. "I guess I'm not in their plans," Howe said from his Houston home. "But I don't know. Maybe they want me to contact them, but I'm not going to do that."	No Mention
Other Candidates Actively Named	Terry Collins, Jimy Williams	Jimy Williams, Terry Collins, Buddy Bell, Jerry Manuel, Lee Elia, Mike Hargrove,

From this, I think we can conclude the Ms are probably serious about Joe Maddon and Grady Little, interested in Don Baylor, and not interested in Art Howe. Beyond that ... who knows?

The Manager Candidates

2004-10-14T15:03:00.000-07:00

Joe Maddon

Terry Collins

Don Baylor

Grady Little

Lee Elia

Mike Hargrove

Art Howe

John Olerud ... Yankee Hero

2004-10-14T14:39:00.000-07:00

You knew it had to happen. Last night, John Olerud hit a 2-run HR to help the Yankees win 3-1 and take a 2-0 advantage over the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS. As you know, Ole' was released from the Mariners in August to make room for trying out the younger guys. The Yanks picked up Ole' for $100,000 with the remainder of his $7.0M salary still being paid by the Mariners.

It was a tremendous pickup for Cashman for two reasons. First reason ... Olerud fits in well. In the field, his solid play at first has shored up the Yankee infield defense. At the plate, Olerud is batting seventh and is protected by a powerful Yankee lineup (Jeter, Sheffield, A-Rod, Matsui, Williams, Posada, Sierra). So he's seeing more pitches to hit. And yesterday he lined one out.

Second reason ... he was ready to hang it up. Olerud admitted he wasn't having fun with the game anymore. His struggles at the plate and the constant travel being away from his family were enough to call it quits. In fact, he was so ready to hang it up that he turned down an opportunity to be traded to the Giants (a team in contention at the time) and the closest team to Seattle. Yet somehow Cashman convinces Ole' to go all the way across the country and play out the season. And you know what? I bet he's having a lot of fun now!

I can't argue or complain about the Mariners dumping Ole'. It was (and still is) the right thing to do. But it does give you a twinge of pain seeing an ex-player do well in another uniform. At any rate ... way to go Ole'!

Begin the Long Winter

2004-10-12T11:08:00.000-07:00

A lot has happened in the two weeks since my last post (how time flies!). A recap:

* Ichiro - All-time single season hits leader. He hits 257 (to tie George Sisler's 1920 record) and 258 (to break the record) in the same game on Friday, October 1st against the Texas Rangers. He then hit 259 for good measure. I had the good fortune to be at that game in Section 344 and it was pretty amazing. A packed house with over 42,000 were on hand. Everyone on their feet for his at-bats. Countless camera flashes in the stands with each pitch. Each one useless but each saluting Ichiro and Sisler. It was like a playoff atmosphere .... only for one guy.

Of course, Ichiro finished with 262 (with one hit on Saturday and two on Sunday). Which I also got to see since I had tickets to the Edgar Martinez Day on Saturday and to the last game of the season. It was a thrill to see them all.

* Edgar Retires. The name sake of this blog has hung up his spikes. Edgar put up some great (and amazing) numbers over the years and he stands as probably the accomplished DH of all-time.

Yet for all those hits ... the one we'll remember the most is "the double" against the Yankees in the 1995 ALDS. That hit transformed the Mariners from a perennial loser to one of the premier teams in the league with a regional fan base that is one of the largest in the country. His hit and he are the reason stadium funding passed, the Mariners stayed, and Safeco was built. The Mariners are the Franchise that Edgar built. All of us NW baseball fans owe Edgar a debt of gratitude.

It was an honor to attend Edgar Martinez Day on October 2, 2004. Edgar recieved:

* Atlantic Street S renamed Edgar Martinez Drive S
* Edgar Martinez Week in Washington October 2 to 9th
* MLB's Designated Hitter Award renamed Edgar Martinez Award
* Painting
* "Light Bat"
* $100,000 endowment for Children's Hospital in his name

Really though Edgar stayed as humble as ever and a Mariner through and through. Whether he's worthy of Cooperstown is something to debate for years. The Mariners believe so and will lobby hard for him. I would like to see him honored that way. In many ways, he's the most accomplished Pinch Hitter of all-time.

Happy Trails Edgar and I look forward to seeing you involved with the Ms and Seattle.

* Bob Melvin Fired. After going 93-69 in 2003 and 63-99 in 2004 (totalling 156-168), the Bob Melvin era is officially over. The Mariners wouldn't officially give a reason (which has been blasted as "arrogant"), but Bob stated that it was because ex-players have done better after leaving the Ms and new players have done worse after arriving at the Ms. Here's a post on that from me. As you can see ... I don't buy that as a reason.

Many (myself included) have called for Melvin to be removed as manager. And many others (including prominent columnists all over the Puget Sound) contend that Melvin isn't to blame and he's being held out as a scapegoat for the front office. I don't believe that either as the front office seems to have taken full responsiblity.

Whatever the reason ... I'm glad it's done. In many ways, the last 2 years if feels like the Mariners were still directed by the ghost of Lou. I really think that to be true. Melvin didn't come in and establish his own direction and personality for the team. He followed through on the same flight path as Lou. It's time for new direction to Mariners baseball.

Evidently, the short list seems to be: Grady Little, Don Baylor, Art Howe and Lee Elia (according to the Tacoma News - which is a dubious source). They also name Jimy Williams, Jim Fregosi and Terry Collins as well as Whitey Herzog, Tom Kelly, Bobby Valentine. Other reports include Sam Perlozzo, Joe Maddon, Jim Riggleman, Mike Hargrove, Buddy Bell, and Charlie Manuel. One thing is for sure ... Bavasi isn't going to say before it's a done deal.

It's going to be an interesting off-season. Lots of stuff to post about.

Number 256

2004-09-30T16:21:00.000-07:00

Ichiro was 1 for 5 today ... and so he goes home to Seattle with 256 hits. Just one shy of tying the single-season hits record. That would mean that he would have about 12 to 15 chances to tie and break the record against Texas at home.

Assuming 12 ABs, he would have to hit .083 to end with merely a tie. And he would would have to hit .167 or greater to end with a new record. His current batting average is hovering around .372 / .373. Against Texas this season he has 20 hits in 71 ABs for .282. His lowest batting average against any AL team except Tampa Bay (.281). In the last series against Texas, he hit .307 (4 for 13). And for the season at home against Texas, he hit .323 (10 for 31).

Assuming the 12 ABs, this projects to between 3 and 4 hits for the series. Which would give him the record. Of course ... this is baseball and anything is possible. But, he stands an excellent chance of getting the record over the home stand.

If you are really nervous. This season Ichiro has gone hitless in consecutive games three times (April 15, 16 at ANA & home against TEX; April 28,29 at BAL; September 10,11 home against BOS). He has not gone hitless in three consecutive games this season.

I have tickets to each of the games this homestand. And I'm excited to be there to hopefully see History being made. Go Ichiro ... Go Mariners!

The Chase

2004-09-26T18:52:00.000-07:00

The major story line in the Mariners 2004 Season continues today as Ichiro knocks yet another base hit going 1 for 4 in Seattle's 9-0 win over Texas. Ichiro prolific ability to get hits continues to amaze everyone.

Baseball is a numbers game and I took a closer look at them today. With seven games to go Ichiro has 251 hits and needs 6 to tie, 7 to break George Sisler's record. Ichiro is averaging 1.62 hits per game over the 154 games he has played (he missed one game prior to the All-Star break). He needs an average of .86 hits over the next six games to tie the record. What is interesting is comparing Ichiro's Hit Averge against the Hit Average for Remaining Games necessary to tie the record.

To get his Hit Average (Let's call this HPG), for each game in the season, I created a Cumlative Hit Total , then divided that number by the number of games he played to get an average hits per game played. So for Today that would be:

251 Hits / 154 Games played (Ms have played 155) = 1.63 HPG

To get the Hit Average Needed to Tie Record (Let's call this HGPN), for each game in the season, I determined the number of hits he was short of 257, then divided that by the number of games left on the Mariners schedule. So for Today that would be:

6 Hits / 7 Games Left = 0.86 HPGN

Then for each game in the season, I looked at how far ahead or behind pace he was. This is simply HPG - HPGN. Zero means he's right on pace. A negative number means he's behind pace and a postive number means he's ahead of pace. Again for today:

1.63 - .86 = .77

That means his season hit pace is .77 hits ahead of the pace need to get the record.

Ichiro's worst situation was when he was 0.94 hits behind the pace needed to break the record. He had .67 HPG and the pace to break was 1.60. This was the third game of the year. He had 2 hits at that point.

Five games later on the 8th game of the season, Ichiro ripped off 11 hits which brought him on pace edging to .04 HPG ahead of the Sisler pace. (1.63 HPG vs 1.59 HPGN).

He quickly fell off the pace again and remained behind pace (getting close every so often) for a large part of the season. On August 11th, he again broke ahead of pace with a HPG of 1.60 and an HPGN of 1.59. He briefly fell behind pace in the next 5 games, but regained his HPG advantage and held it through August and September.

During his recent slump, in the homestand against Anaheim and Oakland, his pace fell off to where he was just barely .02 Hits behind the Sisler pace. Since then he's ripped off the five and four hit performances against Anaheim. And he's now comfortably ahead of pace.

In fact, you may ask, when was he the farthest ahead of pace. The answer ... Today. .77 Hits ahead of pace.

It's amazing that he was essentially behind pace the entire year, until mid-August and then went ahead of pace and held on to that pace the rest of the way. Ichiro's Max HPGN was 1.85 on July 17 he was batting .319 at that point. The Min HPGN was .86 today.

Assuming he gets 4 ABs per game in the next 7 games, his BA need only be .214 (6/28) to tie the record. That's 160 points lower than his current batting average.

Amazing Stuff.

Should Melvin be fired?

2004-09-24T18:47:00.000-07:00

Heck yeah!

Hickey's article is headlined: "Fault front office, not the fall guy" ... it should be "Fault front office AND the fall guy". Absolutely, Melvin definitely has some responsiblity for the team's collapse. At question here is how much? And should he lose his job over it?

For a lot of reasons that people have already mentioned (game management, strategy, motivation), I think everyone can agree that a manager does have some effect on the performance of the team. After all, why have a manager. So the question is how much? 5, 10, 20 games difference? Personally, I think a truly great manager can maybe help his team over-achieve by about 10 games max. If Bob were getting us those 10 games, the Ms would be 48-104 without him. The players are bad, but not *that* bad. So I don't think he's getting us those 10 games. They are not over-achieving because of him.

Aside from managing the players and the game, the manager should have some influence over the make-up of the team. As has been said, the manager is the best person to determine what the team needs to be a winner. After managing 162 games last year and with a new GM, Melvin was in a prime postion to influence player personnel decision in the off-season. As far as I can tell, he had little in the way of influence. His man McCracken went nowhere, the other additions (Speizio, Cabrera, Aurilia) were products of Bavasi relationships.

I think a successful team has a strong manager who has influence on player personnel decisions. Let's look at some other teams with influential managers. The Cubs' Baker brought in guys like Kenny Lofton in 2003 and Tom Goodwin this year. Braves' Cox, Rays' Pinella, Rangers' Showalter have tremendous influence on the young players maturing in their organizations. Each manager works in the constriants fo the organization and budget, but they have influence over player personnel -- influence that was earned not granted. And Melvin doesn't have enough experience to have that type of influence.

I'm happy to hear that Melvin is on the way out. Hopefully, they will name a replacement right away. A replacement whose experience precedes him and comes ready to influence the Mariners' off-season player personnel decisions. And a guy who can add those 10 games in 2005.

Top 10 hitting seasons in history.

2004-09-24T14:43:00.000-07:00

Hits / Name / Year / (BA / Slg)
1. 257 George Sisler 1920 (.407 / .632)
2. 254 Lefty O'Doul 1929 (.398 / .622)
2. 254 Bill Terry 1930 (.401 / .619)
4. 253 Al Simmons 1925 (.387 / .599)
5. 250 Rogers Hornsby 1922 (.401 / .722)
5. 250 Chuck Klein 1930 (.386 / .687)
7. 248 Ty Cobb 1911 (.420 / .621)
8. 247 Ichiro Suzuki 2004 (.374 / .461) **Active**
9. 246 George Sisler 1922 (.420 / .594)
10. 242 Ichiro Suzuki 2001 (.350 / .457)

Some interesting things to note:
* Except for Lefty O'Doul, all are HOFers
* Only Rogers Hornsby and Al Simmons batted right handed. The rest are lefties.
* From 1920 to 1961, MLB had a 154 game schedule, and 162 games since 1962. Prior to 1920 teams had variable games schedules.
* Prior to his record setting 1920 season with the 154 game schedule, Sisler never had more more than 200 hits in a season.
* Since going to 162 games, only Ichiro is in the Top 10 and within 15 hits of the record.
* Ty Cobb accomplished his total in 146 games.
* Ichiro's batting average from his 2 season is lower than every other Top 10 season and his slugging percentage is over 100 points lower. (I don't think this detracts from him, but it does show that he plays a totally different game. As one article said recently, "He steals first base.")
* Only Ichiro and Sisler appear on the list twice. If you expand the list to the Top 25 Hit seasons, Rogers Hornsby would appear twice #5, 25.

Pretty interesting stuff.

The current line on some ex-Ms

2004-09-24T10:56:00.000-07:00

2004 Mid-season trades

Ben Davis http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6144
(CWS) .245 BA / .716 OPS / 6 HR
(SEA 2003) .236 BA / .666 OPS / 6 HR

Olerud http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/4403
(NYY) .294 BA / .769 OPS / 3 HR
(SEA 2004) .245 BA / .714 OPS / 5 HR

Aurilia http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5523
(SAN) .241 BA / .677 OPS / 1 HR
(SEA 2004) .241 BA / .641 OPS / 4 HR

Freddy Garcia http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6168
(CWS) 8W / 4L / 14 G / 91 IP / 4.65 ERA / .248 BAA
(SEA 2004) 4W / 7L / 15 G / 107 IP / 3.20 ERA / .236 BAA

Off-season Trades:

Carlos Guillen http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6105
(DET) .318 BA / .921 OPS / 20 HR / 97 RBI
(SEA 2003) .276 BA / .753 OPS / 7 HR / 52 RBI

Mike Cameron http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5492
(NYM) .233 BA / .800 OPS / 29 HR / 75 RBI
(SEA 2003) .253 BA / .774 OPS / 18 HR / 76 RBI

Moyer's Contract

2004-09-23T12:23:00.000-07:00

Here's a quote from a recent article in the PI: "Moyer's base salary will be $1.5 million, but he can make as much as another $1.5 million based on making more than 30 starts. On top of that, he can make as much as another $4.5 million based on innings pitched, getting the full amount if he gets to 210 innings."

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/189573_mbok06.html?searchpagefrom=2&searchdiff=18

Moyer has started 31 games this season and has pitched 192.0 innings. He should have two more starts (one in Oakland; one at home against Texas).

The way I interpret this is that he gets an incentive based on innings pitched ... and gets the "full amount" (4.5M) if he pitches 210. So there must be a stepped scale of some kind in place. Based on this article, I don't believe that it's all or nothing.

Jamie would have to pitch both complete games to get to 210 (and $4.5M), but with two more starts he's likely to get close ... say 7 innings each for 205 innings. Obviously we don't know the steps in the incentive scale, but maybe $3.5M sounds reasonable. No wonder the title of the article is "Incentives don't concern Moyer".

#700 for Bonds

2004-09-18T11:56:00.000-07:00

Barry hitting #700 last night was just awesome. The Ms showed it on the Safeco field Jumbotron between innings and he received a hearty ovation from Mariner fans ... and some boos (which sounded like they came from the Oakland fans in attendance).

Until recently, I lived in San Francisco for many years. I've been to many Giants games at both the 'stick and PacBell Park (now SBC) and have memories of some of the HRs he hit getting to #700. I'm very happy for Giants fans that he hit #700 at home. With his skill, it almost makes you wonder if he planned it that way. It seems that barring something tragic ... the Ruth and Aaron numbers are next to fall. I hope he does that in SF also. I may have dig up my Giants jersey and fly down there to be a part of that.

We all know Barry is controversial ... not just for BALCO but also his (at times) surly personality. I think age and maybe all the attention is starting to mellow him out a little. But regardless what you think about him ... if you haven't seen Barry play, I encourage you to do it before he retires ... especially if you are a big fan of baseball. It's pretty special, particularly in San Francisco. You'll tell your kids about it. I know that I will.

Can Gil Keep it Up?

2004-09-17T15:30:00.000-07:00

The Zito-Meche matchup tonight should be interesting. Both guys are coming off long shut-out outings. Zito has been inconsistent this season and has allowed runs to the Ms feeble offense in two outings this year.

I'm going to be be very interested to see how Gil holds up after the CG performance against Boston. That was on Sunday and there have been no days off in the schedule. He's been solid since coming back, but it seems like he loses a little effectiveness pitching on 4 days rest. If he can continue where he left off from the Boston shut-out, that will be very impressive.

Random Thoughts

2004-09-17T13:01:00.000-07:00

Some random thoughts on yesterday's mildly interesting game. For 7 innings it was something of a pitcher's duel ... another one. I had thought that the Madritsch bug might have bit Jamie too and to some extent it did. But three errors by Boone (two official and one mercifully given to Wilson) sealed his fate again.

I'd like say "uncharacteristic", but this is happening all to frequently with him. You think three errors in one inning is bad ... I swear he should have recieved two errors (nearly three) in one *play* against Cleveland last week. He flubbed a hit directly to him (allowing the runner to get to first), gave up on the ball (allowing the runner to get to second), and then feebly challenged Ichiro who was charging from right causing his throw to nearly careen away from Lopez (almost allowing the running to go to third).

As the supposed team leader, it seems now that we are 30 games out Boone has checked out mentally for the season. Seeing last night's performance, my wife comments it "looks like my softball league out there". When I was a kid ... the coach used to yell "Get your head in the game". Come on Boone! Get your head in the game!

Lastly, Ichiro got the 4 finger salute (IBB) from Mike Scioscia -- twice. Presents an interesting quandry. Now that the Mariners are playing somewhat competitve baseball with the recent 4 game splits against the BoSox and Angels ... it's coming at just the right time to possibly hurt Ichiro's run for the record.

As the rest of the AL West battles for the title, they are going to take the bat out of his hands in situations where he could hurt them ... like last night. With Winn protecting him, it's not a bad strategy. Worked for Scioscia last night ... Randy grounded out and struck out after the IBBs. He even drew a normal walk. In yesterday's game, he walked 3 times - the most walks this season (which total just 43 all season).

Unfortunately, look for a lot more of this in the coming games against Texas and Oakland. Not that I blame them. I'd have the Ms do it also if we contending. I want to believe that Ichiro is going to get there, but the more they pitch around him or avoid him altogether ... the more you can kiss the best story of the season goodbye.

Safeco helps Mariners

2004-09-16T18:17:00.000-07:00

Overall, the Mariners are 55-90 (.379) and ranking them third worst in MLB, second worst in AL. As a home team, the Mariners are 36-39 (.480) and ninth worst in MLB (fourth worst in AL. As a road team, the Mariners are 19-51 (.271) and ranking them as the worst road team in MLB.

If we look at the difference between home and road records we find that the Mariners are .209 better at home than on the road. Of all the teams in MLB, this ranks the the Mariners #1. Finally something the Mariners can be proud of ... home field advantage gives them more of an edge than any other team.

Politics and Baseball

2004-09-16T15:31:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I compliment the PI for Thiel's article and the next day they go ahead publish a piece on players' political views. Whose stupid idea was that? This is like asking Hollywood celebrities. I don't want to know that Bret Boone and JJ Putz votes Republican anymore than I want to know that Tim Robbins and Whoppi Goldberg votes Democrat. Athletes and entertainers are just that. I don't care what their politics are! I just want to be entertained by good baseball or good acting, as the case may be. People who care about these entertainers opinions should have their heads examined.

On to baseball ...

Do I hear calls for Lowe and Varitek now? Does anyone have Heathcliff Slocum's number? Maybe he'll come out of retirement so the Red Sox can resign him. That makes about as much sense as the Mariners going after Lowe and Varitek.

A spate of strikeouts and people are naming Olivo as a trade candidate. Unbelieveable. You'd think in rainy Seattle you wouldn't have so many fair weather fans. Olivo is a promising young player who requires additional development and nuturing ... not for us to give up on him.

Troy Glaus?

2004-09-15T18:54:00.000-07:00

Heard on the pre-game show: Mariners "homer" Rich Waltz reports "Troy Glaus a guy that a lot of Mariners fans have on their wish list." Wish list for what? Guys that will sit on the bench next to Speizio?

P-I Gets it Right

2004-09-15T13:45:00.000-07:00

In today's battle of competing columns, chalk one up for the Seattle P-I and Art Thiel over the Seattle Times and Blaine Newnham. Whereas Art takes the Mariners to task (what a perfect line: "1995 is SO over"), Newnham toes the Mariners' party line saying "all wasn't lost". In fairness Newnham does make some criticisms, but he doesn't go nearly far enough.

I don't always agree with Art (who does?), but I give him a lot credit for telling the Mariners that they ought not to take Mariner fans for granted. In a lot of ways, it's an extension of John Levesque's column yesterday which ripped the Mariners for covering the patio and sponsor bricks with that moronic Section 101. It's time to rip the Mariners a new one. Not for the uninspired, mediocre on-field performance but for management acting one way (covering bricks, focusing on profits, failing to fulfill promises) and saying another ("Thank You Fans"). It's disingenuous. Credit the PI for putting it in print.

In comparision, columnists at Seattle Times fall short. The have all but moved on to football season with pieces on UW/WSU/Seahawks. Probably sells more papers, after all who cares about the Ms anymore. Newnham's column today was the first opinion piece on the Ms in a week.

Even more painful than toeing the party-line, are the players Newnham proposes: "Both the designated-hitter and first-base positions will be open.

They should go hard after Carlos Delgado, the Toronto left-handed-hitting first baseman who, despite missing six weeks of the season, will still likely hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs.

They will then have to decide whether Lopez can play shortstop or is destined to be a third baseman.

They can live with Lopez if they can add someone of star quality to play next to him, Troy Glaus at third or Nomar Garciaparra at short.

Perhaps they can make a run at Adrian Beltre. They've got the money to do those kinds of things."

What??? Delgago, Glaus, Nomar? Arg. Exactly the guys I posted about earlier this week as being the wrong guys but exactly the guys the Mariners would go after with the big money. Old, over-rated, oft-injured "star" "names". I sure hope the hapless front office doesn't get ideas from him ... or worse he has inside information on future moves.

Contending in 2005 is Faulty Strategy

2004-09-14T11:19:00.000-07:00

I am very concerned that attempting to contend in 2005 (as Howard Lincoln discusses in the letter) will be a faulty strategy.

Many have written that the Mariners don't keep their word (which is true) and they won't spend (which could be true). But I believe that at this point the Mariners are *so afraid* of losing fan support that they believe they must turn their fortunes around on a dime. Howard's letter says as much.

Mariners are going to spend ... and they are going to get "proven performers" to round out the "youngsters". They are going to get "name" guys that think will put butts in seats. Unfortunately, my fear is that this means a crop of middle-aged and/or over-the-hill players choose your favorite ... Sexson, Drew, Glaus, Delgado, Nomar. (That comment will probably get me stoned since some of "virtual GMs" like these guys.) Ensuring that 2005 will continue the fine but faulty lineage of guys in their late 20s and 30s like Boone, Olerud, Aurilia, Cirillo, Speizio, Ibanez. What we don't want to do is take this year's financial freedom and turn it into 3 and 4 year contract handcuffs to guys whose performance will drop off after one season.

I think fans will be fine with a .500 season. That's a 20 to 25 game improvement over 2004. It demonstrates improvement. It changes the "tone" of the season -- from downright awful to competetive. It gives people hope. Fans will continue to support the team ... if they see it going in the right direction.

"Rebuilding" has been given a bad name. So called "rebuilding" teams (KC, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh) aren't rebuilding they are just bad. Developing a team that can be a contender for many years ... doesn't imply being bad to get there. The Mariners' need to have the courage to rebuild.

Ichiro Bashing

2004-09-10T13:13:00.000-07:00

http://www.tribnet.com/sports/baseball/mariners/story/5531286p-5466400c.html
http://msn.foxsports.com/story/2999698

It's infuriating for McGrath to call Ichiro's integrity into question. He bunted ... so what? Now all of a sudden ... he's "sacking"? I can't believe the TribNet stooping to that level ... trying to stir up some kind of controversy.

Next they'll be saying: Ichiro is getting a lot of cheap hits, a lot of infield hits, a lot of down the line dribblers, a lot of bunt-ons. Too many singles. He's not really really earning it. He's not playing the game the right way.

Between McGrath and Dayn Perry ... the smear campaign has already started. It's sad that simple accomplishment cannot be celebrated anymore. There must always be a controversy.

Ichiro will not "demand" a trade!

2004-09-01T17:04:00.000-07:00

I've read some people who think Ichiro is going to "demand" a trade ... because the Ms are stinking in 2004. Sounds like the wishful thinking of a Yankee or Red Sox fans.

The way Ichiro plays he wants win games, so sure being on a loser like the 2004 Mariners has to hurt. But there is no way he would demand a trade from the Mariners.

During the off-season, his agent Tony Attanasio, was quoted as saying, "The club should not take Ichiro to arbitration. If they do take him to arbitration, he would take it as a sign of disrespect." And: "Ichiro is never going to be in the position where he takes so much money it inhibits or restricts the club from doing something it has to do. He also doesn't want to be known as someone who is taken advantage of. There's a happy medium there I'm sure the club will be able to find."

Obviously the Ichiro and the club came to that happy medium with the 4 year deal. Ichiro is not going to go and disrespect the Mariners by demanding a trade.

Now, in Ichiro's eyes, his deal does not "inhibit or restrict" the Mariners from doing what it needs to do ... presumably to get the players to field a contender/winner. So if the Mariners don't follow through on that, then Ichiro might have something to say. But I can almost guarantee we will never hear about in the media.

Ichiro Continues to Amaze

2004-09-01T13:44:00.000-07:00

Ichiro continues his amazing run. What is truly amazing is that it's happening in the midst of this horrible season. He has gotten zero help from the rest of the lineup. None. He's done it all by himself. I can't count the number of games this season that Ichiro went "3 for" and got stranded.

Interstingly, Sislers' 1920 St. Louis Browns (the year he had 257 hits) finished the season at 76-77 out of playoff contention (according to Baseball Reference). So it just goes to show that one good hitter does not make a successful team. Since Sislers record was set in 153 games, it would be really cool if Ichiro could beat his record by his 153rd game.

(Note: Baseball Reference claims Sisler set his record playing in 154 games, which is odd since they have 1920 St. Louis Browns as playing 153 regular season games. I wonder what a more reliable source like the Elias Sports Bureau has.)

One last thing, the AP is reporting according to Elias, Ichiro's 56 in August is the most since Heath's 58 in August 1938.

More Candidates

2004-08-31T14:42:00.000-07:00

I really like what Dan Rohn's done with the Rainiers, his reputation among players, familiarity with the callups on the team. But I have doubts that he would be tapped if (which is still a big "if") the Mariners cut ties with BoMel.

Back in 2002, Lincoln & Co talked with Rohn about the opening but passed him over. Granted two years have passed.

Here's the candidate pool (from media reports) that the Mariners considered in 2002 and where they are now:

- John McLaren - TB Bench Coach
- Lee Elia*^ - TB Hitting Coach
- Jim Riggleman* - Dodgers' Bench Coach
- Terry Francona*^ - Red Sox Manager
- Tony Muser*^ - not sure (was Royals manager)
- Willie Randolph^ - Yankees Bench Coach
- Sam Perlozzo^ - Orioles Bench Coach
- Buddy Bell*^ - Cleveland Bench Coach

* - Previous Management Experience
^ - Former Major League Player

Manager Candidates?

2004-08-31T13:54:00.000-07:00

Don Baylor would make a good manager candidate. He's a guy with fire and is an ass-kicker, but isn't explosive like Bowa. He won't always be the nice guy. Some Cubs fans knocked him for relying on vets too much, overworking young pitchers, and poor bullpen management. But overall, I think he makes his clubs better and as a player he was a winner (which doesn't hurt).

Here are few other candidates that I find intriguing:

Lance Parrish / Kirk Gibson (Tigers assistants) - Both winners with personality who are known to have management aspirations. Might be hard to pry these guys away from Michigan, but with Detriot's return to respectability Alan Trammell is firmly in place as the Tigers' Manager.

Mike Hargrove (Indians' coach) - Within 3 seasons, he turned Cleveland from a dormat into a winner in the late 90s. Winning the AL Central 5 seasons in a row. Granted he didn't do much in Baltimore, but there were a lot of issues. He's certainly not afraid of a challenge, but then again he's said that he doesn't wnat to be in a rebuilding situation ... which the 2005 season will be regardless of what the Ms want us to believe.

Incidentially, just as I suspected the Larue article is making the rounds. KJR has been discussing it this morning and it seems to be picking up steam. Hopefully, this makes it off the blog and into a story / opinion piece in the paper itself? Art Thiel / John Levesque / Larry Stone ... write something about this!

What about Bob?

2004-08-30T15:21:00.000-07:00

I think there are two things to keep in mind when it comes to managers. First, success breeds success. Winning is mindset and exceptional managers have a history of winning either as players or coaches. Second, a manager can only do so much.

Over the course of a season, beneficial decisions from an exceptional manager can make the difference in at most perhaps 10 games. Meaning that a club with 81-81 talent and an "average" manager could be 91-71 with the same talent and an "excellent" manager. Managers aren't going to take a bunch of scrubs and turn them into winners alone. This isn't the movie "Major League"!

Speaking movies, so "What about Bob?" Point one: Bob Melvin does not have a winning history as a player. In his playing career, he was at best a guy who bounced around the majors and never played a lynch-pin role on a team for several years let alone a winning team or playoff team or championship team. (http://www.baseballlibrary.com/baseballlibrary/ballplayers/M/Melvin_Bob.stm) So from his playing days, Bob didn't experience a lot of winning (and sometimes just playing).

As a coach, he assisted Brenly to a 92-70 season and the 2001 WS win for the D-Backs. It was a great victory and I don't want to detract from them, but the question is how did they do it? Particularly in their first year. The thing about that season was that they were handed a squad loaded with veterans and talent. And they were great managing the Randys & the Curts. But it's not like they won developing a team from the ground up with a bunch of young kids like they have now. In fact, that's the reason Bob was hired in 2003 to manage the Edgars & the Brets.

So now the question, does Melvin add any wins to win column? Well, many here believe that the 2003 season was simply leftover Lou momentum. And it could be argued that his success backing up Brenly (a familiar role for Bob) in 2001 and 2002 was similar. While I don't think he's a negative to the team ... it's tough to argue that he adds any wins.

So sitting here at 50-80 ... you have to wonder: what if we had an "exceptional" manager? The Ms might be 60-70. Still out of the race by a mile, but what a huge difference!

I'm happy for the media attention .... hopefully this will gather momentum in the PI and the Times and maybe FSN and TV outlets. The more publicity they better. Management owes the franchise exceptional on-field management.

Double Header at the Safe

2004-08-29T11:33:00.000-07:00

I have to say, it was really cool to have gone. The last doubleheader was 18 seasons ago and we may not see another for many years. Especially with the rolling roof ... which incidentially they closed late in the 2nd game.

After the first game, I would estimate that about 85% of the crowd went home. The result was an odd scattering around the stadium. I've been in extended extra innings games at Safeco that looked empty like that. But never to start a game. It was eerie, spooky.

It was like ... an Expos game or a 1980s game in the Kingdome. Or dare I say it ... maybe a 2006 game in Safeco, if 2005 is as disastrous as 2004.

The 85% who left between games gave up an opportunity to see their team play another game. Now I can't blame people for leaving. People have lives to get back to ... kids, pets, businesses, whatever. And this was an unexpected bonus game that people didn't buy directly. Seven hours is a lot of baseball. But I think it does make an interesting commentary about the the typical Mariners and the fan base generally.

It really seems to support Mariners' management opinion that the typical fan is casual. I've never been to a Cubs or RedSox doubleheader, but I would bet that more than 15% would stay to see the game 2.

Anyway, just random thoughts from a guy who spent a whole Saturday at the Safe. And is going back for more this afternoon! Go Ms.

Ichiro Plays for the Fans

2004-08-20T13:27:00.000-07:00

"We still have a lot of fans come out and watch our games," Suzuki says. "When I think about that, I want to be able to perform well, and maybe have the fans be excited about something. And be able, as a professional, even though the team's not doing well, still be able to go out and perform to the best of my ability."

I've always thought of Ichiro as prehaps a little distanced or aloof in regard to the fans. My faulty impression was perhaps born from not hearing him interviewed or quoted often or maybe it's language. But as we hear more from him and this quote here really tells me a lot about Ichiro. He's not out there hitting only for himself ... he's out there hitting for us fans. Speaking for myself, I'm honored. I hope he feels better and passes 257!

Molitor admits to messing up Ichiro

2004-08-20T13:14:00.000-07:00

"It was the Mariners' suggestion that he take more pitches and perhaps unleash greater power that contributed to his early 2004 slump. This spring training, hitting coach Paul Molitor looked to round out Suzuki's game a bit and wound up dulling it.

'He started the season trying to be a little less aggressive, and you could tell he wasn't comfortable,' Molitor says. 'He was trying to respond to information given to him by his manager and his hitting coach. In hindsight, I don't know if the messages really resonated with him -- how they'd make him a better player. After a while I said he should just go back to his old methods.'"

I don't know that it's ever been confirmed before, but there it is. Melvin and Molitor admit to messing up Ichiro to begin the season. Good going guys.

MLB in Vegas, etc.

2004-08-20T12:25:00.000-07:00

* I like the concept of Las Vegas being the next MLB town and it sounds good on paper, but I have serious doubts about MLB working there. It averages over 100 degrees in July & August, which would make it the hottest place in baseball. Although Vegas is a big tourist draw, I'd be surprised to see people leave the gaming in favor of some nice wholesome baseball. Then again, if the (what should we call this team?) "Jackpots" played in an air conditioned stadium where every seat was a slot or video poker machine ... maybe people would come.

* I read an article where Melvin said they might not call anyone up because of the Rainiers pennant chase. WHAT THE? That has to be the most ridiculous thing! Does anyone outside of Tacoma care if the Rainiers win the PCL? Anyone? On Sept. 1, the Mariners need to take full advantage of the expanded roster. Man ... lately Mariner moves/decision always seem to disappoint me ... letting the air out ... what little there was.

Mariners' Fans Patsys?

2004-08-14T17:03:00.000-07:00

From John Levesque's column today "Mariners putting face on numbers": "What Lincoln and Armstrong know, and are obviously banking on, is that the Seattle baseball market is different, maybe unique. While there certainly are hard-core Mariners fans here, there is a large group of patrons who go to Safeco Field for the satisfaction and entertainment of seeing a baseball game, not necessarily a Mariners game. The Mariners' marketing surveys bear this out, and they cater accordingly to this demographic."

Who are these "large group of patrons" that don't mind paying $17 to $50 a seat, $20 a parking space, $5 a hot dog, $8 a beer to see a generic major league "baseball game"? Who are these people who don't care that they are at a Mariners game? Don't care if the home team wins? What does this say about Seattleites, about Northwesterners?

Seeing this "Seattle is a market of casual fans" crap in print time and time again simply infuriates me. Are my neighbors, our neighbors really that pathetic? Are people here that weak?

I don't think so! They're telling us the rabid fans of UW Football (heck, even UO and WSU Football) turn into weaklings when spring rolls around? I don't buy it!

I wish the Mariners would put my vote (and probably the votes of many who blog here) into their flippin' marketing survey. Do we care whether it's Mariners game? Heck yes. Do we care whether the team wins? Heck yes. Do we want to win the World Series? Heck yes.

Put that in your marketing survey Mariners!

Can Ichiro challenge Sisler?

2004-08-12T22:06:00.000-07:00

Ichiro has been getting a ton of hits lately. At this point he has 179 hits. Interesingly the all-time single season hit record is 257 by George Sisler in 1920 (according to Baseball Reference). By my calculation that leaves him 78 hits behind and on pace for 256.6 hits. That would be awesome if he could break an 84 year old record!

In case you're wondering, Sisler's 1920 St. Louis Browns finished 1 game under .500 and 4th in the American League. So I guess getting a lot of hits doesn't necessarily translate to a lot of wins.

Ichiro isn't getting nearly the press that this deserves ... however, just like you don't talk to a pitcher during a no-hitter ... so we shouldn't talk to loudly of this either.

Willie's Intangibles

2004-08-12T13:09:00.000-07:00

I couldn't agree more with the USS Mariner on last night's game ending play. I was sitting along the first base line and had a perfect view of Willie's "jump" ... if you can call it that. He was dead by a country mile ... the only reason it worked out was a complete fluke. 99 times out of 100 on that play he's out. Sitting there ... I'm wondering ... "why heck give him the steal sign? did i miss something?" Oh no ... I find out he decides to do it himself.

Why Willie? You're already in scoring position! With Leone up and Lopez on deck, give those guys an opportunity to drive you in!

"Talk about intangibles," Mariners manager Bob Melvin said. "Willie Bloomquist brings a lot to the table. He's not afraid to do some things out there."

"Intangibles". Willie deserved a reaming for that idiotic play. Obviously, you take a win ... but this wasn't intangibles ... it was stupid luck.

Olivo and Eddie's Deal

2004-07-30T13:09:00.000-07:00

I think Olivo will start to even out his stats. Who knows for sure, but just see a lot of talent and potential in that guy. Interesting note I didn't know (you might have): Olivo was originally with the As organization and sent as the "player to be named later" in a deal to the Sox in 2000. I wonder what Beane thought of him.

For you move Eddie fans. I heard this on KJR this morning. Eddie's deal is structured as follows: If the Mariners want Eddie back in 2005, he comes back at $6M-something and he *cannot* say no. If the Mariners don't want Eddie back in 2005, he can say "I want to coming back" but he takes a lower salary $4M-somthing. Or he can opt for free agency. According to this report, Eddie cannot unilaterally decide that he wants out at the end of the season. He can only do so if the Mariners don't want him back. This is contrary to what I thought. Pretty interesting.

Scary Bear

2004-07-28T16:34:00.000-07:00

Edgar is the greatest, but the Edgar Bear should never have happened.

Bob Melvin's Playing Days

2004-07-28T15:05:00.000-07:00

Some folks have commented the Bob Melvin may not have much experience at winning baseball games. So, I looked up Bob's playing record.

Bob played as a catcher for 10 seasons for seven teams (Tigers, Giants, Orioles, Royals, Red Sox, Yankees). In his first MLB season with the Tigers, he was Tigers' backup and they finished 3rd in the AL East.

He was traded in a multi-player deal in the off-season to SF. There he backed up Bob Brenley (hence the connection that made him the DBacks bench coach) for 2 years, '86 & '87. In '87, the Giants went to the NLCS and lost to the Cards (Bob went 3 for 7 with a walk, no runs or RBI). In 1988, he split catching duties with Brenly and the Giants finished 4th in the NL West.

Before the 1989 season, the Giants and Os swapped backup catchers, Melvin going east and Terry Kennedy going to SF. In Baltimore, for the next three seasons Melvin split catching duties playing in between 79-93 games. While Bob was there from 1989 to 1991, Os finished 2nd, 5th & 6th respectively.

Prior to the 1992 season, the Os moved him to KC for a pitcher (Storm Davis). Once again Bob was a backup catcher and KC finished 5th in the AL West. He was released in the off-season.

From there Bob bounced around as a free agent. In 1993, he backed up Tony Pena in Boston in 1993 (Boston finished 5th in the AL East). In 1994, he picked up with the Yankees but was waived at the trade deadline. He was picked up by the Angels and flipped to the White Sox ... where again he had a backup role. The Yanks and White Sox finished in 1st, but of course 1994 was the strike year.

Bob was out of the league after 1994. He finished with a career BA of .233, OBP of .268, 456 Hits, and 35 HR. So in 10 seasons, Bob peaked out at 93 games in one season (1990 Os). The most successful team he experienced was the 1987 Giants when he played in 52% of the Giants regular season games. But ultimately they lost to the Cards in the NLCS.

Was he used to losing as a player? That argument can be made. Of course, this doesn't mean he's a bad manager, but if one subscribes to the adage that success breeds success ...

(For you Lou fans, Lou played in 18 seasons for 4 teams - the Orioles & Indians (1 season each), Royals (5 seasons) and Yankees (11 seasons). He compilied lifetime BA of .291, OBP of .333, 1705 hits, and 102 HR. He appeared in 10 post-season series including 4 World Series, winning back to back in 1977 & 78. His post-season BA was .300. He was Rookie of the Year and an All-Star in 1972. That folks is a heritage of success.)

Welcome to the House that Edgar Built

2004-07-28T10:35:00.000-07:00

Tonight the Seattle Mariners play the 100th game in what amounts to a lost season. Despite this, I have decided to pick up and start blogging my thoughts about the team. I won't have any real "inside" information ... although from time to time, I'll pick up on the latest rumors circling the internet. This is more going to be my opinions and thoughts on the franchise, the management, the players, and the play of your Seattle Mariners. Go Ms.